Tuesday, August 20, 2013

USELESS Poll - Preseason edition


Welcome to the 2013 preseason edition of the USELESS Poll. Just by looking at its name (Undermining Statistical Excellence to Legitimize Entirely Subjective Suppositions), you can already tell that this ranking system is at least as good as graduate assistants filling out the weekly coaches poll and far superior to entrusting our national championship matchups to our computer overlords.

Last season, I started a grand experiment. Of all the grand experiments I’ve embarked on throughout the years, the USELESS Poll was – by far – not the worst. I got a lot of good feedback and judging by the numbers, pulled in more and more readers with each passing week. So, in the spirit of not fixing things that ain’t broke (and calling on certified professionals to fix things that are, in fact, broke… stupid household appliances…) let’s kick off the year with a preseason poll.

The very nature of preseason polls is absurd, but that’s what makes them so entertaining. We have very little to go on other than how teams performed last season and how many of those teams’ best players are coming back. There’s just not enough information out there to figure which teams beyond the normal favorites will be any good. Even the supposedly solid teams are tough to judge. Maybe last year’s success has gotten some marquee players complacent and they haven’t taken a step forward. Maybe some guys have been nurturing injuries without disclosing them to coaches. For as secretive as some big-time programs are, a handful of starting quarterbacks could be rotting in a drunk tank somewhere, with fans never being the wiser.

But, as I said, all of those unknowns are half the fun. The important part is that we’re on the verge of a brand new year of college football. Everyone is 0-0 and every school can dream of hoisting that crystal championship trophy in January.

*breaks out in unrestrained laughter*

Just kidding. As usual, any team not in the SEC, Big Ten or Pac 12 is probably screwed when it comes to actually having a chance at making the national title game. But hey. The USELESS Poll is here for you. We’ll rank you anyways, just for poops and giggles.

So, let’s see what we’ve got…

  1. Alabama Last season, we made it very clear that playground rules apply to these rankings. Whoever is on top of the mountain stays there until they lose. That line of thinking worked pretty well as the Crimson Tide failed to hold the top spot only after suffering its only loss, but still stuck around the top and was No. 2 in the final poll before storming to a title. The same holds true this year. A.J. McCarron could make history as the first quarterback to lead a school to three national titles and T.J. Yeldon is a viable Heisman candidate. Obviously, all other schools need to emphasize recruiting prospects who go by their initials.

  1. Oregon Many people will take a wait-and-see approach to the Ducks this year after Chip Kelly flew the coop for the NFL. While losing a head coach is always a negative, it shouldn’t be that big of a deal for this team. Chip Kelly scored exactly zero points for the Ducks last season. Oregon’s returning players scored exactly… *breaks out calculator*… *starts punching numbers*… *calculator suffers thermonuclear detonation*… Um. The returners scored a lot of points. Had the NCAA been sane enough to utilize a tournament format to decide last year’s champion, the USELESS Poll would have put its money on Oregon. This year is looking very similar.

  1. Ohio State The Big Ten caught a lot of flak last season. It was pretty much deserved. The Big Ten was a bunch of puppies scurrying around their pen while the rest of the country threw rocks at them. But that was when the pit bull of the conference was tied up around the corner. Ohio State was the only undefeated team in FBS last season, but was ineligible for a conference or national championship due to being on probation. Granted, the Buckeyes had some lackluster performances against some pretty bad conference teams, but there is something to be said for managing to win every game – especially when there is nothing to play for. Most of the team returns this year and is able to play for a title while the conference as a whole is still a bit down. The Buckeyes beat last year’s Big Ten title game participants by a combined 32 points. That might be the spread they’re favored by for most games this season.

  1. Georgia If not for a total lack of some middle school-level clock management skills, the Bulldogs could have been playing for a national championship last season. With one of the nation’s best offenses returning this season and a defense that should at least be up to the task, UGA has plenty of reasons to think that another run at an SEC/national title game is in the picture. But then there is the downside – with the Bulldogs, there is ALWAYS a downside. Whether it’s losing early or late in the year, this team always seems to run out of gas a mile from its exit. Last season, this poll punished the Bulldogs for playing a Charmin-soft schedule. While some of that was due to chance due to rotation in the SEC schedule, there was no excuse for Buffalo or Florida Atlantic. This season, the inverse is true. A tough schedule and a talented team get UGA plenty of preseason love, but with three of their first four games coming against top-12 teams, things could be over for the Bulldogs before they even begin.

  1. Stanford – The North division of the Pac-12 is this year’s version of last year’s SEC West. While there are plenty of good teams in the conference, it’s a shame that the two who stand head and shoulders above the rest are stuck in the same division – meaning only one will make it to the conference championship game. As great as Notre Dame’s run was last season, there is no doubting that Stanford is king of the ‘intellectual’ schools as far as football goes. The Cardinal have survived a coaching change and the loss of a No. 1 quarterback, two tight ends and half of an offensive line to the NFL, but haven’t missed a beat year. Chances are that everything will come down to the Stanford/Oregon game once again. With another win and some stars aligning, who knows how far the Cardinal can go.

  1. Clemson – This USELESS Poll is pretty torn on this slot. There is no doubting the explosiveness of the Clemson offense and the general awfulness of all but a few of the Tigers’ opponents this season. Then again, history is riddled with the corpses of highly regarded Clemson teams who have either buckled under the pressure from the start or picked the absolute most painful way to crush the hopes of their fan base after showing championship potential. Seeing as how Tajh Boyd is our value pick for the Heisman (14-to-1… Go call your bookie. We’ll wait here), Clemson gets the benefit of a doubt to start the season.

  1. Texas A&M – It’s a miracle that Texas A&M made it this high in the poll. While thinking of who to put in the top-10, there was a brief moment where we forgot all about the Aggies – thinking that they were no longer a college football team, but a new trashy reality show featuring Johnny Football. Think what you will about Johnny Manziel, but there is no doubting that he’s an absurdly good football player. Playing against SEC defenses and without any All-American type running backs or receivers, Mr. Football still managed to single-handedly account for over 300 yards of offense per game. Things might come crashing down this season, but now that Manziel will be available for interviews after each game, it should be incredibly entertaining no matter what happens.

  1. Louisville The Cardinals sit at No. 8 in the preseason poll as this year’s BCS buster darling. As scrappy go-getters from a non BCS conference, th- *Stat guy whispers in my ear* Really? *more whispering* No shit? Apparently, despite playing in something called the American Athletic Conference with teams like Houston, Memphis, SMU and Temple, the Cardinals are still in a BCS conference. The AAC – which will be affectionately referred to as the Zombie Big East (ZBE) in this poll – is still guaranteed a spot in a BCS game for its champion. Boise State has been going about it wrong all these years. Instead of getting really good in a crappy conference, just be pretty good in a good conference, then let the rest erode around you.

  1. South Carolina Much like Texas A&M, the Gamecocks’ ranking is about 70% predicated on the health and performance of one player. Jadeveon Clowney is probably what the boogeyman checks for under his bed before he goes to sleep every night. The guy is just scary. Furthermore, he proudly upholds a longstanding belief of the USELESS Poll’s creator – If your number in no way corresponds to your respective position, you’ve probably shown enough badassery to have earned the right to wear that number. Pro tip for all of the skill position players out there, if a linebacker/defensive lineman with a single-digit number is closing in on you, just go down. It will be easier that way.

  1. Florida StateEven when the football gods try to give FSU something, the Seminoles just refuse to take it without doing things the hard way. Not content to have just one ineligible team, the ACC Coastal division had its top two teams held out of postseason play last season, only to see FSU struggle and strain to just barely stave off a 6-6 Georgia Tech team for the conference title. The Seminoles are loaded again this season, but still have to get through Clemson. After making a mockery of a gift last season, the football gods might make things tougher this time around.

  1. Notre Dame – Gather round, everyone. Let’s all have a nice, long laugh at Notre Dame for getting their asses handed to them in last season’s national championship game. Are we done? OK. Good, because it might be a little while before the Irish get laughed at again. Sure, they were overmatched last season, but that doesn’t take away from another very talented squad this year. The defense shouldn’t drop off much and the offense should be vastly improved. The Irish would be outdoing themselves to make it back to the title game, but another great season isn’t out of the question.

  1. LSU – It’s pretty easy to underestimate the LSU Tigers. After an underwhelming national championship showing two years ago and a couple of uninspired losses last season, it’s easy to forget just how good the Tigers have been in every other game. This season, LSU isn’t even a top-2 pick in its own division. That might end up being another underestimation, but given how LSU has fared in big games recently, not even a mob of quasi-French babbling swamp donkeys will be able to sway voters until the Bayou Bengals put forth a special effort.

  1. Florida Given all of the other polls, it seems right to have the Gators ranked right about here. Then again, it’s entirely possible that everyone else sees Florida for the incredibly flawed, one-dimensional team that it probably is, but is too scared to rank an SEC powerhouse anywhere out of the top-15. Hey… Half of this poll’s existence is just to drum up support for the blog. We’ll be damned if we’re going to alienate a huge fan base that wouldn’t be able to cope with a low preseason ranking.

  1. Oklahoma State For the last couple of seasons, the continued existence of the Big XII has been largely up in the air. The uncertainty of the conference has caused concerned press to flock to either Oklahoma or Texas for answers, allowing the Cowpokes of OSU to take full advantage. Shut out of the NC game two years ago, Okie State has been able to keep its resolve. No Oklahoma State team in the foreseeable future will have the talent of the 2011 squad, but as long as the Big XII is a viable conference with big-money boosters, the Cowboys will be a national contender.

  1. Opponents of the NCAA – This is a true Cinderella story. In a country where billion dollar corporations seem to be able to run their business however they see fit – with little fear of oversight or taxation – this summer was filled with gut shots to the NCAA. There is, of course, the looming litigation brought on by Ed O’Bannon and friends concerning collegiate athletes’ abilities to profit off of the blatant use of their likeness and jersey numbers to sell merchandise. That argument was a good one to begin with and has only been strengthened over the past two weeks as Jay Bilas has waged a very effective one-man war to highlight the NCAA’s hypocrisy on such matters via Twitter. Then there is the drama and, we’re projecting, subsequent shoving under the rug of Johnny Football related issues in order to keep a currently active, high-profile, insanely marketable asset out of trouble. The untouchable NCAA is showing more wear and tear by the day. This will get much worse before it gets better.

  1. NebraskaWith Ohio State now eligible for the Big Ten title, the Cornhuskers now have another hurdle to get over. Luckily, Taylor Martinez returns for what we think is the fourteenth straight year to guide Nebraska through the conference slate. Seriously, Martinez is the bizarro Heisman candidate. He was a trendy pick in his sophomore season and a dark horse last year. In his senior campaign, Martinez isn’t even in Vegas’ top-15. How does a guy walk that road while continuing to be the heart and soul of his team? An even bigger question: With Rex Burkhead graduated, who will step up to claim the coveted role of ‘Scrappy White Running Back That Everyone Showers Undeserved Praise Upon’?

  1. Texas Time to see what can be done in his first year as…. Wait… Mack Brown is still coaching these guys? Really? Wow. More power to the guy. There aren’t too many consistently nationally relevant schools that would allow a coach to win about seven games per year over three seasons and not give him the boot. The Longhorns seem to have the talent to compete for a BCS Bowl berth, but that’s been the case for the last few seasons. If Mack can’t do it this year, he might not get the always-coveted fourth chance.

  1. Oklahoma The Sooners complete the heartland trifecta. Oklahoma isn’t expected to be a national powerhouse this season, but maybe that’s a blessing in disguise. The Sooners have always been at their best when they’re flying under the radar. It’s rare that a top-5 OU team lives up to the hype, but a middling ranking might serve Oklahoma well, letting it find its identity and hit its stride before pushing into the weekly discussion on national powers.

  1. Boise State Since we’re not counting the Zombie Big East as a non-BCS conference, Boise State once again gets to carry the banner of lower conference darling. As usual for a team that is well out of the national spotlight, it will take a perfect season to even hope for a shot at a BCS bowl. Luckily for the Broncos, their schedule makes that easier than ever this season. Boise will face the normal who’s who of low-level FBS cast-offs, but its toughest three games will all come in the first two months of the season. If the Broncos can win those matchups, it’ll be smooth sailing once the national press catches onto an undefeated team and rides them into December.

  1. Michigan The bad news for the Wolverines is that, now that Ohio State’s postseason ban is lifted, they once more must keep an eye on their biggest rivals at all times. The good news is that Michigan simply has to win its division in order to stare down OSU and earn a BCS bowl bid. This is what the Big Ten envisioned when it split into two divisions. It never wanted anyone other than Michigan or Ohio State to be the face of the conference. How awesome will it be when one school wins the rivalry game, then has to turn around and beat its arch-rival again in the conference title game to get a BCS bid?

  1. Fresno State Boise State has cornered the market on chief BCS-buster, but the Bulldogs could very well be the best team from a lower conference this season. A September 20 showdown against Boise State will decide who this season’s biggest threat to the BCS establishment will be. Regardless of who wins, they might as well throw themselves a parade and forget about the next 8-9 games. The NCAA has made it abundantly clear that no non-BCS team will ever get a shot at a national title. Whoever wins this game will get a huge boost in the rankings that this poll will exploit to no end in order to mock the normal powers of the nation.

  1. Northwestern – The USELESS Poll is nothing if not forthcoming. Northwestern is a lifelong favorite/charity case for the poll’s creator. That said, the Wildcats are definitely deserving of a spot in the top-25. Given their conference, academic standards, and observed general indifference to athletic accomplishments, there is no good reason for Northwestern to ever be considered. While NU is a great place to look for a hard-hitting journalist (you can give  me a raise anytime, boss), competent doctor, or maybe even a lawyer, it’s becoming evident – at least while under the leadership of Pat Fitzgerald – that Northwestern should also be looked to for success on the gridiron.

  1. Sorority Rush Week – If only we had listened to our elders… They always said that we never even realized how good we had it. It’s easy to laugh at those platitudes until the day that you watch 18-year old girls frolicking about – no doubt subjecting themselves to National Lampoon-level shenanigans – and realize that they were all in third grade when you first set foot in college. We’re professionals here, so we’ll round out the last two spots. But all we really want right now is a cold shower… and maybe a chick-flick and a pint of Ben&Jerry’s.

  1. TCU – The Horned Frogs have a lot going for them. Not only are they a very talented team that can vie for the Big XII  championship, but they’re also an entertaining personification of every ‘football-is-bigger-than-life’ story that has ever been inspired by the good citizens of Texas. Not to dismiss the many talented athletes that make up TCU’s roster, but  - for all national implications – the team’s fortunes rest on the shoulders of reformed drug-addict Casey Pahcall. Whether he explodes on the national stage or implodes into last year’s disaster, some fringe cable channel should definitely copyright the upcoming TCU season for a 13-episode run next spring.

  1. UCLA – The Bruins hold the enviable position of playing in a very good conference while having relatively few obstacles standing between them and the conference title game. There is nothing like watching one half of your conference beat itself senseless while you look at a schedule full of Arizonas, Colorados and Utahs. It’s basically a two-team race in the Pac-12 South. Whether UCLA or USC pulls through, they’ll have gone through a relatively soft schedule that will be rendered irrelevant if they can beat the North champ and get a BCS bid.


Teams that probably are Top-25, but I ran out of good jokes: Wisconsin, USC, Oregon State
Teams that are good, but not quite good enough:  Baylor, Ole Miss, Miami



I enjoy making this poll every week, but it’s time consuming and I can’t always catch all of the unique storylines that are vital to the unique weighting of my rankings. If you have something (dirt on a player, pictures of cheerleaders, valuable betting information, etc.) that you think should affect a team’s ranking, feel free to bring it up in the comments section.