N.L. EAST
The only good thing about the end of the Braves’ 2011 campaign was that their choke was less publicized than that of the Red Sox.
Heading into 2012, the Braves still have plenty of talent, but should be more concerned with the improvements of other teams in the division. Miami brought in a handful of big name free agents and Washington is welcoming Stephen Strasburg back into the big leagues (with Bryce Harper possibly making an appearance this summer).
Possibly tired of waiting for his oblique to give out, Chipper has already torn his meniscus and has announced that this will be his final season. While Chipper can still hit, he can barely move, and getting 80 games out of him would have to be considered a success.
As for the rest of the Braves, some combination of consistency and improvement has to be shown across the board to have a shot at the postseason. Heyward and Prado disappeared for large chunks of the season while McCann and Uggla both had their moments, but couldn’t stay hot for more than a week or two at a time.
The bullpen remains one of the best in baseball, but unless the Atlanta bats improve, there won’t be many leads for O’Flaherty, Venters and Kimbrel to protect.
Possibly taking a cue from their neighbors in Tampa , the Marlins are hoping for immediate success after a name change. Personally, I think it’s an improvement. Not only does the city of Miami reflect the Marlins’ key demographic of Hispanic fans better than the old Florida moniker, but the name just rolls off the tongue… Miami Marlins.
But all alliteration aside, the Marlins improved their roster just as much as their name and their digs (the new stadium looks pretty nice).
Reigning N.L. batting champion Jose Reyes is now at shortstop, with Hanley Ramirez bumping over to third and hoping to regain the spark that made him a top-10 fantasy player from 2006-2010.
The pitching should be just as solid as Josh Johnson is 100 percent healthy and Carlos Zambrano has made it through all of spring training so far without physically assaulting a teammate. Wait a sec… *checks today’s box score*… Yep. Big Z is a total team player so far.
The Marlins also picked up one of the top two closers on the free agent market in Heath Bell. The talent and balance in all aspects of the game could be enough to win the division if everyone plays to their potential and something goes wrong in Philadelphia .
A final thought on the Fish – Have you heard that the backstop at the new stadium is an aquarium with real, live fish? The Marlins have assured everyone that it’s shatterproof, but who won’t be rooting for Josh Johnson to uncork a wild pitch that sends hundreds of fish flapping toward the infield. I bet the Marlins built it weak enough to break. The gate numbers at the next game would be the highest in years once the PETA protest shows up.
I try hard to be funny, but sometimes the jokes just write themselves.
Not content to simply blow millions of dollars on big name free agents that tanked (I’m looking at you, Jason Bay and Johan Santana), the Mets blew millions of dollars on a ponzi scheme and have had to beg the league and wealthy suitors for enough money to operate.
With the financial future of the team up in the air and with the team already wildly underperforming, New York had no chance of keeping Jose Reyes when his contract was up this offseason.
After over two years of arm trouble, Santana should be healthy enough to start the season in the rotation, but the former fireballer now sits around 89-90 and isn’t an ace anymore.
Perhaps the only Mets employees worse than the front office are those on the medical staff. The trainers and doctors for the Mets took their time in getting Santana healthy, got Bay and David Wright into the lineup only sparingly, and reportedly misdiagnosed an Ike Davis foot injury so badly that a 15-day DL stint turned into over 80 percent of the season. This spring, Davis ’ foot is fine, but he has somehow contracted Valley Fever.
If you’re a Mets fan, you used to only have to fear for your sanity as your team blew late leads in September. Now, you’ve got to fear for your life. Luckily, appropriate medical approaches are seemingly in action as the Mets won’t be good enough to draw any otherwise healthy people out to Citi Field where they might catch something (Possibly ebola… probably home runs from opposing teams).
It would be easy to convince yourself that the Phillies could be in some trouble for the first time in over six years.
All of those guys that keyed a World Series title in 2008 and another N.L. championship in ’09 are – while still effective – past their peak. Then, there are the injuries. Chase Utley was blazing a trail to the Hall of Fame until a mysterious knee ailment popped up last spring and kept him out of the lineup until mid-May. Even after his return, he managed just 11 HR and 44 RBI. This season, his knee problems are back and he will likely start the season on the disabled list.
Not to be outdone, Ryan Howard provided one of the most gut-wrenching ends to a season ever when he not only supplied the final out for the Cardinals’ first round upset of the Phillies, but also managed to rupture his achilles tendon in the process. He should be back in the lineup by June, but his absence leaves a gaping hole in the middle of an offense that is a shadow of its former self.
That would be enough damning evidence to condemn most teams to a third place finish, but most teams don’t have three of the top six Cy Young vote getters from last season in their rotation.
It’s becoming more and more rare for pitchers to rack up 20 wins in a season, but Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels could each win 20 and not too many would bat an eye.
Even the No. 5 spot in the rotation is held by Vance Worley, who won 13 games in 2011 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Finally free of Brad Lidge at the back of the bullpen, the Phillies also locked down Jonathan Papelbon for those days where Halladay, Hamels and Lee can’t be bothered to go nine full innings.
The Phillies’ bats might be weakened this year, but there’s no guarantee that opposing offenses will score enough to take advantage.
With every pain-free inning that Stephen Strasburg throws and every time Bryce Harper manages to reach base without making a mockery of himself, his family and baseball etiquette in general, the Nationals’ bold strategy of tanking badly enough to rack up multiple overall No. 1 picks gains more credibility.
A year and a half after electrifying packed houses with 100 mph fastballs, Strasburg is back from Tommy John surgery. He’ll likely never hit 100 again, but for such a hard thrower, he had a good two-seamer, change up and curve. All of those are still there and will continue to rack up outs even though his right arm no longer requires nuclear launch codes to operate.
The Nats also picked up Gio Gonzalez who had a very good 2011 while everyone was busy not paying any attention to the A’s. Jordan Zimmermann is a good No. 3 guy, and – while his overall record isn’t great – John Lannen can be wheeled out a few times per year to continue his mastery of the Braves.
The key to breaking into the top of the division standings will be the offense. The Nats spent huge money on Jayson Werth last season, seemingly forgetting the fact that Nationals Park is much tougher on right-handed hitters than Werth’s old park in Philly. Add that to the fact that he didn’t have nearly as much protection in Washington ’s lineup, and you get numbers that aren’t worth anywhere near $17 million per year.
However, Werth still has 25 HR, 100 RBI potential, and the lineup can be much more intimidating if Ryan Zimmerman stays healthy and Michael Morse can repeat last season’s power surge.
N.L. CENTRAL
It was a hugely successful offseason for the Cubbies.
No. I’m not talking about Theo Epstein being hired away from Boston to try and reverse Chicago’s unsettling trend of whiffing on big money players that don’t produce (cough, cough, ALFONSO SORIANO, cough). I’m also not talking about the fact that neither Prince Fielder nor Albert Pujols will be terrorizing the pitching staff anymore.
Those things are all well and good, but they can’t compare to the jubilation that must have been felt by the dozens of Gatorade coolers at Wrigley Field when they and their families found out that their livelihood would no longer be endangered by the tyrannical reign of Carlos Zambrano. Every pitcher is entitled to punching the occasional inanimate object after a bad day, but I’m pretty sure that Big Z punched out more pieces of orange plastic than he did batters last season.
As for the remaining Cubs, things are looking bleak. Starlin Castro is a good young shortstop and Marlon Byrd had a career resurgence in Texas , but no one on the roster is going to be confused for an All-Star starter anytime soon.
Fun Fact – The Cubs have a backup catcher named Wellington who, somehow, isn’t white.
2011 was a year of frustration for the Reds.
Fresh off of a division title in 2010, the Reds had a ton of young talent that was poised to do even better. Nothing incredible happened. There weren’t any season-long slumps or devastating injuries, but things just never came around for Cincy.
They wallowed in mediocrity until mid-summer, then quietly faded away as the Cardinals made their late charge. And so the issue now lies in determining which team was the fluke. I choose the underachieving 2011 squad.
I still think that the Reds closely resemble the Phillies at the start of their recent string of division titles. Cincinnati has a ton of everyday players in their prime with power, speed and defense that can carry this team to big things.
The bullpen will probably be suspect and the starting rotation isn’t overwhelming, but if great offense and a rotation of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer can win a title, than Bronson Arroyo, Matt Latos and Johnny Cueto could turn the same trick with guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick slugging the Reds to wins in October.
At some point about 6-7 years ago, the Astros must have done something to the Phillies that really pissed off the karma gods.
First, the Astros picked up former Philly GM Ed Wade, who rarely did anything productive. Then, in a gift that kept on giving, the Phillies talked Wade out of most of his good players in Houston .
With names like J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve and Brian Bogusevic expected to be in the everyday lineup, Houston runs away with this year’s award for “team most likely to not have a player taken in your fantasy draft”. Unless someone really has a thing for Wandy Rodriguez or a rash of injuries to first basemen causes the rotting corpse of Carlos Lee to come into demand, there might be a good amount of people that see Houston disappear from the N.L. Central next season (they’re moving to the A.L.) and simply assume that the entire franchise was sent down to Triple-A.
The Brewers should just give up. The signs are all around.
CC Sabathia and Prince Fielder both have a good chance of competing in the playoffs this season, but neither will do it for Milwaukee . It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what about Milwaukee drives people away.
Oh, wait. No it isn’t. There’s nothing good about the upper Midwest . It’s cold, tornadoes are always trying to kill you, and outside of Chicago , there isn’t a lot of money or big companies milling around.
The good people of Milwaukee will feel good about themselves about Ryan Braun’s suspension being lifted, but they’ll also curse his name in a few years when his contract is up and he can skip town.
As for this season, Braun is going to have a tough time avoiding sideways stares and whispers about cheating the system unless he can repeat his MVP performance of last season.
Newly acquired Aramis Ramirez should keep some power in Prince’s vacated lineup spot, but it will take a repeat of the breakout years of Shaun Marcum, Chris Narveson, John Axford and Nyjer Morgan to get Milwaukee back into the playoffs.
A.J. Burnett couldn’t be a more perfect example of just how futile the Pirates’ efforts have become in the last two decades.
First off, A.J. Burnett – a guy that received big money to go to the Yankees, then repeatedly crumbled under pressure – now constitutes a big-name in terms of what Pittsburgh is able to bring to tow.
Secondly, after arriving at spring training, it took Burnett all of one week to remove himself from the lineup. Though he’s a B-plus pitcher at best, he was still slated to be the opening day starter. That is, of course, until he managed to break his own face in a bunting drill.
The Pirates are struggling, to say the least. Andrew McCutchen is going to be a huge success in this league, but there’s just nothing else going for Pittsburgh . Look at it this way; before McCutchen broke through two years ago, the Pirates’ representative at the All-Star game – since every team gets at least one representative – was Evan Meek.
Not a superstar, not a shut-down closer, not even a decent player at a position with a dearth of talent; Evan Meek. When middle relievers are the best foot that you can put forward as a team, it’s no wonder that next week is going to be the start of your quest for an unprecedented 20th consecutive losing season.
After a Cinderella run to a World Series title last season, it was a winter full of departures in St. Louis .
Albert Pujols left for the sunshine (or possibly the extra $50 million) in Los Angeles , while Tony LaRussa called it quits as manager. La Russa didn’t actually make it out of St. Louis until last Thursday, as he kept replacing the guy driving him to the airport at every light in order to get a better matchup.
A lot of people gave up on the Cards’ chances for a repeat the second Pujols left, but I’m not so sure. Lance Berkman had a career resurgence last season and Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran – if they can stay healthy – will join Berkman in a middle of the batting order that will still be threatening. David Freese looked like a superstar all through the postseason and will probably be one of the best five third basemen in the N.L. this season, and Allen Craig – Freese’s fellow surprising newcomer in October – will be the fourth outfielder and likely first right-handed bat off of the bench.
Throw in a great catcher in Yadier Molina, a solid top of the rotation in a healthy Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse, and a bullpen that was nearly unhittable down the stretch, and there’s no reason that the Cardinals can’t be playing late into October once again.
N.L. WEST
I’d like to take a moment for another flashback to horrible fantasy baseball decisions that I’ve made.
About three years ago, while in need of a decent starter, I traded away a shortstop and a reserve outfielder for Ian Kennedy. I really bought into the Yankees’ hype that he was their ace of the future, conveniently forgetting that the Yankees haven’t developed a good starter from their farm system since Andy Pettitte. Needless to say, Kennedy didn’t last half a season in the rotation and my team suffered.
Now, I’m sure that Kennedy is probably a fine person in real life, but I can’t just let it go when you hurt my fantasy team like that. No one was more enraged than me when he decided to go 21-4 out of absolutely nowhere last year. I know that battling the lineups of the Giants and Padres is easier than getting through the Red Sox and Rays, but he couldn’t get through the third inning without throwing up all over himself two years ago. How the hell do you go from that to 21-4?
Whatever. The hell with him. There’s no way he’s doing that again.
Mostly, it won’t happen again because there just isn’t enough talent to provide enough run support for 21 wins. Justin Upton should put up All-Star numbers and Jason Kubel is a nice new addition, but Chris Young’s impending .220 average will offset his HR contributions and – while talented - Ryan Roberts and Paul Goldschmidt can’t be depended on to carry the offense.
Behind Kennedy, a bunch of guys that would be No. 4 or 5 starters in most places won’t do enough to get this team near the playoffs.
With a track record of doing big things in years where little was expected of them, it’s hard to ever call Colorado a sleeper team. Regardless, that’s what I’m calling them this year.
While the media goes nuts over the sale of the Dodgers and sportswriters drool over the starting rotation of the Giants, Colorado has built itself a pretty nice team.
Baseball-modified T-1000, err, I mean Troy Tulowitzki, leads the charge for the always-potent Rockies offense, but he also has plenty of help. Todd Helton continues to hit baseballs like they murdered his family and the addition of the always underrated Michael Cuddyer in right field was a great move.
If healthy, Carlos Gonzalez is an MVP threat in left and Dexter Fowler will be a big help in center as he continues to progress. Along with the power in the lineup, Marco Scutaro and Ramon Hernandez can both hit for average and should keep the lineup turning over.
The only thing keeping me from projecting a deep run is a complete lack of proven pitching.
Jhoulys Chacin and Jeremy Guthrie have had their moments, but have also been inconsistent. Drew Pomeranz has the makeup of an ace, but is still a rookie. If all three have good years, big things could happen in Colorado once again.
When the amount you paid for a baseball franchise could stock an aircraft carrier with F/A-18 Hornets, you probably paid a little too much.
Two billion dollars.
That kind of money can fund space exploration projects. A number that high belongs more in tax reform law than Major League Baseball. Even Dr. Evil thinks that number is a little over the top.
Two billion dollars is something you pay for broadcast rights to the Super Bowl, not for a team that just barely finished over .500 last season. By spearheading the ownership group and their comically large bid for the team, Magic Johnson really isn’t doing anything to fix his portrayal in that South Park episode about him.
I know that the Dodgers are in the second biggest media market in the country and that much more than on-field talent goes into the value of a team, but if I were an L.A. fan, I’d be pretty pissed that my $2 billion team includes the likes of Juan Rivera, Justin Sellers and Aaron Harang.
If Andre Either gets back to his 2010 level of play and James Loney ever lives up to the “N.L. batting champ for the next decade” tag that followed him to the majors, this could be a decent team.
Still, saying that this team isn’t going to live up to its value anytime in the next five years would be the understatement of the century.
In my opinion, there isn’t a better looking stadium – or more pleasant weather – to be found in the majors than what the Padres have in San Diego .
That last sentence concludes all of the nice things I have to say about the 2012 Padres.
Without newly signed Carlos Quentin and Huston Street , San Diego would have challenged the Astros’ ability to assemble a lineup that is totally undraftable for fantasy players.
Since nobody can hit anything out of Petco Park , having Quentin as the only powerful bat usually wouldn’t be a huge problem, but the Padres don’t even have guys that can drive in runs with doubles. Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson are solid defenders up the middle, but won’t contribute much on offense. Likewise, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley and Will Venable are all major league caliber players, but serve as too many puzzle pieces on a team that needs a core.
If Clayton Richards and Cory Luebke continue to develop, the pitching will be good in 2013 and beyond, but until then, I suppose the weather will be nice this summer.
I know that the Giants didn’t make the playoffs last season, but in a way, I’ll still consider this to be their chance to defend their 2010 title. When three of your starting eight position players are lost for the season – and all within a month of each other – you can’t really say that you ever had a chance.
Injuries are a part of the game, but it’s much more fun to see a team at full strength.
This season, that’s exactly how San Francisco will start the season. Buster Posey is back behind the plate as one of the best offensive catchers in the N.L. and Freddy Sanchez should reprise his role as perennially undervalued middle infielder.
Aubrey Huff and Pablo Sandoval have more than enough pop to sustain the offense and a full season of taking aim at the huge outfield gaps of AT&T/SBC/Pac Bell Park should greatly help his already impressive doubles and triples numbers.
The offense will be improved from last season and the pitching is still some of the best around. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are both threats to win 20 games while Madison Bumgarner is quickly becoming one of the better lefties in the game.
Some of the mystique of Brian Wilson’s beard wore off last season, but he still throws 95 mph with a nasty slider and should be in line for 40 saves.
And so, there you have it. That’s about all I have to say for each and every team this season.
Now watch me project how they’ll finish:
A.L. EAST
A.L. CENTRAL
A.L. WEST
N.L. EAST
N.L. CENTRAL
N.L. WEST
WILD CARD ROUND
DIVISIONAL ROUND
NLCS/ALCS
WORLD SERIES