Friday, August 3, 2012

A national college football poll - Margin of error: +/- 3%


For as long as the nation has recognized the need to rank college football teams, it has also failed to figure out one best way to do so.

Throughout the better part of the 20th century, you couldn’t open up a magazine without running into the publication’s own views on which teams were the best. There were only a few polls that were widely regarded by the public, but that never stopped schools from claiming a title bestowed upon them by a less than reputable voice on college football – I’m looking at you, 2004 Golf Magazine national champion Auburn Tigers.

In fact, 1998, the first season of the BCS, saw the first unanimously named champ (Tennessee) since the 1972 USC Trojans. The years in between – and many of the years preceding 1972 – often had even more than two champions, with a record six schools getting the No. 1 ranking in some fashion or another for the 1980 season.

Even though we now have a system that crowns a lone champion, there is still no shortage of polls that offer their own suggestions as to which teams are the best from week to week.

If groups (Associated Press), television networks (ESPN), websites (cbssportsline.com), coaches and self-appointed geniuses with their own special systems can put out rankings every week, then so can I.

Thus, I present to you, the Undermining Statistical Excellence to Legitimize Entirely Subjective Suppositions poll – henceforth to be known as Mike Anthony’s USELESS Poll.

These rankings, while mostly aiming to give you my general view of the current week’s version of the top 25 teams in the nation, will also take into consideration things like obscure college facts, tailgating intensity, cheerleader hotness, and fanbase lunacy that for some reason go unrecognized by most polls.

So consider yourselves lucky, because you are now the proud viewers of the first ever USELESS poll.

  1. Alabama Now that computers account for much of the selection process for the national championship game, the preseason polls are largely irrelevent. Where in the past, teams could be unfairly punished for starting out too low before tearing through their schedule, the many components in the computer formulas now largely negate to advantage or disadvantage of a high or low preseason ranking. With that in mind, my preseason poll takes a page from the always reliable and predictable world of wrestling (the folding chairs and cage matches one, not the cauliflower-ear, singlet-wearing one) in choosing its favorite. Alabama is the reigning champ. Until the Crimson Tide loses a game, they’re on top.

  1. USC – No… Not you, South Carolina. Stop calling yourself USC. Win (or at least claim) 11 national titles before assuming that your initials are all that people need to research or even find your campus buried in the middle of South Carolina: America’s ‘D’ student. USC is so good that even postseason bans and scholarship restrictions couldn’t stop Lane Kiffin from bringing in truckloads of talent. If not for undergoing their final year of bowl ineligibility in 2011, the Trojans would have been a shoe-in for a BCS game. This year, they should be even better with Matt Barkley – who will be an early Heisman favorite – returning for his senior season. A midseason showdown with Oregon will be the only time that USC has to beat comparable talent in the regular season and a win should earn them a spot in the title game.

  1. LSU – All too often, teams fall victim to their previous success, believing that they can win games in the same fashion and with the same game plan that has previously led to victories. Sadly for the fightin’ swamp people, their bold and heroic attempts to have Alabama forget how to kick field goals didn’t work out in their national championship meeting. LSU will likely rebound and contend for a championship again this season. The Tigers’ only big question mark is at quarterback, but since the last SEC quarterback to play a role in a championship season specialized in 12-foot jump passes, I’m guessing that they’ll be alright.

  1. Oklahoma For the last five years or so, the champion of the Big XII (Hey… kudos to you for keeping the name despite being two-thirds of your former self) has had one of two problems. The BCS representative has either proven critics right and underperformed when having to face better defenses, or been kept out of the national title game discussion because of the conference’s perceived softness, only to throttle its bowl game opponent. All too often, the Sooners have been on the underperforming half of those problems. National talking heads all seem to agree that Oklahoma has one of the best – if not THE best – roster in the country, but past shortcomings are keeping many of those analysts from predicting a title for Oklahoma.

  1. Oregon Remember when these guys used to use Donald Duck in their official athletic logo? How did those guys ever evolve into a perennial national power? Oh, wait, right, millions upon millions of dollars donated by Nike. But still, it’s impressive that such an ignored section of the country can consistently lure enough talent up there to field a team that can compete with anybody else in the country.

  1. This space intentionally left blank – The first five teams on this list are good. Really good. Like, waaaay better than the rest of the teams in the nation. Unless something very unforeseen happens, some combination of Alabama/LSU and USC/Oregon will go undefeated, with Oklahoma also threatening to run the table. If two of those five finish the regular season without a loss, there is no way that any other team can jump them. If you are a fan of any team other than the top 5, please treat this empty ranking as a metaphor for the hopelessness and emptiness that the upcoming season will offer you, regardless of what your team accomplishes.

  1. Boise State Two years ago, the Broncos blew their best shot at getting to a national championship due to a couple of blown kicks. Last season, Boise fell just a point short of an undefeated season once again. The Broncos lost four-year starting quarterback and all-time NCAA wins leader Kellen Moore, but Boise still gets the benefit of a doubt in my book. They have more wins than any other FBS program over the last 12 years. They aren’t a fluke. Stop treating them like one.

  1. Florida State Fun fact: once you account for adjustments made by the NCAA to the record books, Bobby Bowden has less wins than he did two years ago, yet has soared into the lead for wins by an active coach. We’ll now observe a moment of silence so that Joe Paterno can roll over in his grave…. OK. Good. Florida State is loaded with talent this season. The only thing keeping them from a higher ranking is that the Seminoles have never let something as trivial as vastly superior talent get in the way of underperforming. FSU has the potential to run the table in the ACC, but nobody will believe it until they see it.

  1. Michigan Even though the Wolverines don’t quite have top-10 talent in my opinion, this is their big chance to get back on top. Ohio State is still ineligible for the postseason and might lack some competitive fire. Penn State is an absolute mess. Even Iowa doesn’t figure to be as competitive and plucky as usual. A lot of Michigan’s success will come from improved talent on both sides of the ball. Finishing in the top-10 will require some more Shoelace-inspired luck, but it’s happened before.

  1. Wisconsin I’m still not convinced that Wisconsin wasn’t the best team in the nation last season. They were the better team and played the better game in every matchup and were only beaten on hail mary completions in back-to-back weeks. The Badgers are every bit as nasty this season, save for the departure of Russell Wilson. Wisconsin will be tough, but they can’t win it all with a first-year quarterback.

  1. West Virginia After competing for the laughable title of Big East champion for the first 14 years of the BCS era, West Virginia has finally escaped to greener pastures, conference geography be damned. It’s hard to believe that WVU is only a few years removed from being one monumental choke job against Pittsburgh away from playing for a national title, but the Mountaineers have managed to stay competitive through that tragedy and the subsequent exodus of Rich Rodriguez. West Virginia won’t be able to keep up with Oklahoma, but should do just fine against most of the Big XII.

  1. Georgia Many have the Bulldogs ranked higher than 12th. For this, I call shenanigans. As a constant advocate of the underdog, I’ve spent many a night arguing at the bar with some misguided SEC fan about the merits of non-BCS conference teams being able to compete against the best in the nation. Inevitably, the other guy will bring up strength of schedule. This is where UGA loses points in my book. They have somehow managed to avoid playing Alabama, LSU and Arkansas in their conference schedule for a second straight year. The SEC may have produced six consecutive national champions, but I’m afraid that the Bulldogs will suffer for having dumpster fires like Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi on the schedule.

  1. Arkansas Much like Georgia, the Razorbacks are also receiving more love than 13th in just about every other poll. This ranking is more of a matter of principle. I refuse to believe that a single division of one conference is home to three of the top 10 teams in the country. Furthermore, no matter how impressive Arkansas is this year, they’ll never do much better than 13th if they plan on getting thunderdomed by the other two powers in their division like they did last season.

  1. Michigan State Aside from the overachieving non-BCS schools, is there a more consistently good team that gets less press than Michigan St.? Sure, the Spartans have had some bad seasons not that long ago, but plenty of powers have done the same. Michigan St. is usually in the Big Ten title picture well into November. Even when it isn’t, it usually bullies its way into the headlines with a big upset. The Spartans were quietly awesome last season and will be very good again in 2012.

  1. South Carolina Old habits sure do die hard. Even with Stephen Garcia out of the picture, South Carolina is adding to its stats in the “Quarterbacks Arrested” category. Much like Clemson and Florida State in the ACC, South Carolina is the SEC team that always seems primed for a breakout season, yet always seems to find a way to shoot itself in the foot before it ever sniffs greatness. The SEC East doesn’t seem to have much competition after Georgia, but even so, I don’t think Marcus Lattimore’s brand new ACL will be strong enough to carry his team to the SEC title game.

  1. Clemson – While I’m on the South Carolina/self-destructing team bandwagon, I might as well touch on Clemson. Just go ahead and apply most of South Carolina’s preview to this team. Very talented… minimal competition… great chance that the one team favored over it in its division will find a way to blow it. The stars could very well align for Clemson, but they’ve never taken advantage of it before. Why start now?

  1. Nebraska There are so many things about Nebraska that perfectly embody the spirit of college football. The Cornhuskers have the tradition of USC, the rabid following of Alabama, and the ability to turn their stadium into one of the largest cities in their state like Michigan. Nebraska has also done a great job of shaking off the Bill Callahan era – a span of time which I believe will be conveniently forgotten by most Nebraska fans within the decade.

  1. Texas - After coasting through most of the last decade and riding his team’s ridiculous talent to a national title and one more championship game appearance, it’s time for Mack Brown to start worrying about his job. Texas supporters were willing to look the other way and let him throw most of his coaching staff under the buss when the Longhorns went 5-7, but Brown didn’t do a much better job in last year’s 8-5 showing. If things don’t get better quickly, people will be calling for Brown’s head. Personally, I’d be calling for their mascot’s head… I bet Bevo would be delicious.

  1. TCU – The Horned Frogs (still a totally bitchin’ nickname) won’t be favored to win the Big XII this season, but are certainly good enough to pull off a surprise. If they do, they’ll have what I’m sure is a record by winning the conference title in three different conferences in consecutive years. Completing that feat would lead me to cry out for TCU to go independent and pick a new conference each year to swoop in and harass.

  1. Kansas State – In sticking with the Big XII theme at this point of the poll that predicts a heart-wrenching season with a couple of close losses that would have vaulted the team into BCS contention if only they were wins, here come the Wildcats. If Boise State is the perennial underdog darling in the public’s eye, then Kansas State is the hipster douchebag of teams that are good despite there being no good explanation for their success. Kansas State was doing this way before Boise made it cool. The Wildcats used to be one of the worst programs around. In fact, before Bill Snyder was given control of the program in 1991, there were the worst. He whipped them into shape, retired, watched the program go to shit in just a couple of years, returned, and immediately made KSU good again. That guy is doing something right.

  1. The USC Song Girls – Come on. Admit it. Once we get past the top-20, those last five spots are just to make slightly better than mediocre teams feel good about themselves and give those schools’ fundraising departments something to work with. I defy any of my readers to find me a team ranked No. 21 or below that would draw more attention than three hours of streaming internet coverage of the Song Girls going to practice and then getting drunk at a frat party.

  1. Stanford – Those dweebs out in northern California may have lost the top NFL draft pick and some great tight ends and offensive linemen, but I want to give them a chance to show that Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck were able to build a foundation before they left campus. Stanford doesn’t have much of a shot of winning the Pac 12, but it is still a good team and a solid pick for third best team in the conference behind USC and Oregon. Come on, geeks. Become the Duke University of college football. The ire that would draw from SEC fans alone would earn you a permanent spot in my preseason poll.

  1. Notre Dame – The good news for Notre Dame fans is that the 2012 version of the Fighting Irish should be the most complete, well-rounded team in years. The bad news is the Notre Dame’s schedule will likely bake that completeness and such totally irrelevant. Detractors of the Irish often cry foul on the grounds that they are independent and can make as easy or tough of a schedule as they please. The ability to schedule tough opponents will likely haunt Notre Dame this season. The Irish travel to Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC, and have home dates against Michigan and Stanford to boot. One of the better Irish teams of late might struggle to finish too far above the .500 mark.

  1. Louisiana Tech – The Bulldogs only make this list because I noticed that they were pretty high on the ‘Also Receiving Votes’ section of the preseason coaches poll. That poll might just be trolling me in convincing me to buy into their logic. Either way, I’m sure that the USELESS poll will soon become the trusted leader in national rankings. I might as well bomb on a preseason prediction now while I still have some humility.

  1. Penn State I have no allegiance to Penn State. In fact, I’ve often been known to loudly root against the Nittany Lions. But as a resident of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania for the first 14 years of my life, I have plenty of friends and family who live and die with Penn State football. As a show of goodwill, I figured that I’d put the Lions in this last spot for my preseason poll. After all, this is probably the last top-25 poll Penn State will make for about a decade.

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