It’s finally here, everybody!!!
After a long winter spent crying over the downfall of my
Phillies, then looking fondly upon my optimism during last year’s preview –
only to cry even harder when I saw how horribly wrong I was about everything –
I’m back and ready to do a lot better in 2013.
As usual, I’ll be covering all 29 Major League teams, plus
the Astros. The praise, jeers and backhanded compliments are all meant in good
fun, but I’ll do my level best to be as unbiased and informative as possible
with my actual projections.
So without further ado – except for the N.L. teams; they’re
up tomorrow – here is how I see things shaping up.
A.L. East
1st place – Tampa Bay Rays
A little bit of a surprise right off the bat. Most people
have already given the division title to the Toronto Blue Jays, but for all of
the big splashes that they made in the offseason, I’m not totally sold on them
outlasting the Rays. Tampa boasts two starters
with ace stuff (David Price and Matt Moore) the 2011 ROY in Jeremy Hellickson,
and a 2013 ROY
candidate in Alex Cobb.
Many thought that the 2008 World Series season was a fluke,
but the Rays have done a good job of remaining relevant and rebuilding. In
addition to Evan Longoria, the Rays have a proven All-Star with Ben Zobrist.
The trio of Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings and Will Myers will make Tampa lethal if all play
to their potential.
2nd place – Toronto Blue Jays
I will never cheer for the Blue Jays to win it all and will
probably bust out a nice cigar and good bottle of scotch the day that Joe
Carter dies. I’m sure he’s a great guy and all, but you will never be forgiven
for crushing the hopes and dreams of an 8-year-old Mike Anthony.
All of that long-simmering hatred aside, I think that people
who are calling for 90-plus wins out of the Blue Jays are getting a little bit
ahead of themselves. Jose Reyes was the gem in that blockbuster trade with Miami , but he has only
been an All-Star caliber player once in the last four seasons. Even more
concerning – that one great year JUST SO HAPPENED to be a contract year. Reyes’
selfishness was evident when he pulled himself out of the last game of the 2011
season just to be sure that he would win the batting title. I don’t doubt his
abilities, but I certainly call into question his willingness to play hard
every day now that he’s got his fat contract.
There are other question marks amongst the Jays’ stars as it
still remains to be seen if Jose Bautista can come back to 100 percent off of
his wrist injury and Josh Johnson has never approached his viciousness
pre-surgery. Toronto
should be plenty good, but they might not be great.
3rd place – Baltimore Orioles
I know that I disappointed a few friends and family members
back up in York , PA
(closer to Baltimore than it is to Philly or Pittsburgh ) last season
when I took more than a few cheap shots at the O’s. I’m also sure that any of
those hurt feelings were easily mended as the Orioles shocked all of baseball
in making a run to the playoffs.
Most of the faces are back from that rag-tag group of
overachievers, but that might not be a great thing. There was a very good
reason that no one saw the O’s coming last year. Of all of the scouts, front
office guys and talking heads who are paid a lot of money to figure out who is
good at baseball, none of them came up with an answer of ‘The Baltimore
Orioles’.
4th place – New York Yankees
If I were to present to you a team whose optimal starting
eight position players had a combined age of 236 years, what would you call
them? If you called them the Yankees, you’d be wrong. You would still be one
averaged-aged starter short of reaching the combined 269 years of creaky bones
that New York
plans on trotting out there.
The good news is that the Yankees’ opening day lineup will
be significantly younger than that. The bad news is that this will be the case
because some old fogeys like A-Rod and Mark Teixeira couldn’t even make it
through the offseason in one piece.
When the Yankees are healthy and firing on all cylinders,
even their advanced age won’t stop them from piling up runs. But most of their
injuries are projected to drag on for a long time and it’s doubtful that the
equally old and iffy pitching staff will be able to pick up much slack.
5th place – Boston Red Sox
This was a tough call to make. In a Boston fanatic’s fever dream, the Sox will
win the division this season. That’s not anything new or surprising, but what
worries me is that the Red Sox have far too many All-Star level players for a
last place team and I don’t want to suffer the shame of my preseason A.L. East
cellar dweller making the playoffs for a second straight year.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks and Dustin
Pedroia could create a very formidable top of the lineup and Jon Lester still
has the stuff to win 20 games. But for every star or possible breakout star in
the ranks, there are guys like perennial underachiever Stephen Drew or one-man
infield pop-up machine Shane Victorino.
There is still some talent in Boston , but with legitimately good and
legitimately OK teams dotting the division, the Sawx might not have what it
takes to stave off 90 losses.
A.L. Central
1st place – Detroit Tigers
The same scenario could very easily play out again this
season. The Royals and Indians have both improved, but not enough to challenge
for playoff spots. The Tigers were clearly the best of the bunch last season
and should only get better with a healthy Victor Martinez still in the lineup.
Triple Crowns are about the rarest thing to happen in baseball, but Miguel
Cabrera is such a freak that he might make a run at another.
The bullpen will remain the Tigers’ biggest question mark,
but with a potent lineup and a starting rotation full of guys who would be the
No. 3 starter or better just about anywhere else, Detroit might lead most of its games by so
much that a shaky last few innings won’t matter.
2nd place – Kansas City Royals
I don’t know why I always think that the Royals are on the
verge of breaking through. I have somehow found myself bearing the Sisyphean
task of studying Kansas City ,
buying into all of its young talent, hyping them up, and then watching them
lose 15 of their first 20 games and never get into the race.
Looking at hitting, power, defense, pitching, and all of
that fun stuff, it’s clear that the Royals aren’t an A+ in anything. But then again,
you’d have a hard time grading them much worse than at least average at any of
those spots.
I like to think that my reckless days of calling for a
Royals division title are behind me, but I still want to believe in the
potential of this squad. I’m going to meet my hopes and cold reality somewhere
in the middle. I think that the Royals get off to a much better start this year
and are a feel-good story for most of the summer, but aren’t quite on the
Tigers’ level.
3rd place – Chicago White Sox
There are no shortage of people who would love to pick Chicago to with the A.L.
Central. I can certainly understand their enthusiasm, but the problem is that
all of that enthusiasm boils down to a handful of really good starters and a
bullpen that should be great.
Don’t get me wrong. Both of those things are definitely
great to have. In fact, I would guess that at least two or three teams do a lot
right this season, only to miss out on the playoffs precisely because they
don’t have dominant starters or relievers. But I just don’t see where the White
Sox will score enough runs to do any real damage.
The offense is basically an aging Paul Konerko, a
schizophrenic Adam Dunn, and a bunch of guys who only have decent career stats
because they get hot for one month each season.
Chris Sale may very well win this year’s A.L. Cy Young and
Addison Reed could become the new ‘it’ closer in MLB, but there just won’t be
enough pop to make much magic in September.
4th place – Cleveland Indians
The Indians made some solid moves late in the postseason
(signing Michael Bourn and wrestling Nick Swisher away from the Yankees). The
definitely improved themselves, but it won’t be enough to make much of a
difference.
There are definitely other bright spots for Cleveland like
up and coming Jason Kipnis and the majestic home runs that Mark Reynolds will
hit when he isn’t busy striking out 200 times. But those can’t make up for the
fact that the rest of the Indians’ roster is made up of average veterans and
guys that even die-hard scouts don’t know about.
The ‘Major League’ franchise really ruined the Indians for
anyone who wasn’t a fan before the movies came out. I feel like the Indians
could become legitimately good, but nobody would give them credit until they
see Bob Ueker cracking wise in the press box or someone sacrificing a live
chicken in the dugout.
5th place – Minnesota Twins
It was only a few years ago that the Twins topped even the Oakland A’s at being a successful
team without the benefit of a big payroll. Minnesota tried to make the leap to
full-fledged juggernaut by inking its two stars to huge deals and building a
shiny new stadium, but everything has gone straight to hell.
Where the Twins could once do no wrong (finding some guy
named Johan on the scrap heap, letting him walk just after he started to go
downhill, getting top level production out of cheap guys like Jason Kubel and
Nick Punto), there is no little that is going right. Mauer’s knees – and power –
are starting to fade, Morneau has never come the whole way back from his
concussion problems of four years ago, and that nice new ballpark has turned
into a cavernous trap unbefitting of a team that doesn’t hit tons of home runs
or defend well.
The Twins have overcome problems like this before, but they
usually depended on a strong core of pitching to do so. That’s no longer the
case, as Vance Worley – the No. 5 starter for Philadelphia – is slated to take the mound
for the Twins on opening day. I’ll just let you use your imagination to fill
out the rest of the rotation.
A.L. West
1st place – Los Angeles Angels
The Angels surprised just about everyone in the baseball
world last season as they never fully hit their stride. Despite offseason free
agent addition Albert Pujols and midseason addition of Mike Trout – who hails
from some planet where everyone is much, much better at baseball than us puny
earthlings – the Angels couldn’t do better than third place.
Undeterred, Los
Angeles went ahead and pulled off another free agent
coup, signing Josh Hamilton away from the division rival Rangers. I suppose it’s
possible that the Angels underperform again, but they have structured
themselves in a way where underperforming could still lead to 90 or more wins.
The Angels are a juggernaut that seem preordained to win the
division, if not much more. The real drama will come when L.A. plays new division rival Houston. A
roster that is arguably the best in baseball gets 19 cracks at one that is
inarguably the worst. Is a 19-0 mark possible?
2nd place – Oakland
A’s
There is little more debate about whether or not ‘moneyball’
works. Billy Beane is on his third or fourth fringe metric-generated roster of
castoffs and nobodies that are continuing the proud Oakland tradition of surprising everyone, getting
to the postseason, and then wilting in the playoffs.
I would say that there is no shame in that, but now that
one-third of all teams make it to the postseason (which I support – additional TV
ratings and tickets sales are doing great things for the fringe wild card
teams), the A’s have to do better. Now that there are three full rounds, not to
mention a possible play-in game, standing between the ‘we made the postseason
dog-pile’ and a world championship, having a mostly anonymous roster is no
longer such a strange thing to come across.
Ironically, the one thing that could get the A’s over the
hump is the least ‘moneyball’-esque player on the roster. Oakland hit a home run by signing big money foreign
free agent Yoenis Cespedes. A solid pitching staff and juuussst enough offense
will again be the blueprint for this year’s squad. If the A’s have the balls to
pick up a big piece through a trade, maybe they can finally break through.
3rd place – Texas Rangers
If there has ever been a non-Phillies team that I’ve felt
sorry for, it’s the Rangers. They went to back-to-back World Series and had the
better overall team on at least one (probably both) of those teams.
The Rangers will still mash and have the perfect ballpark to
do it in. The Rangers have added Lance Berkman’s sometimes-potent bat into the
fray, but the acquisition that has slipped under the radar is that of A.J. Pierzynski.
Texas is going to miss Josh Hamilton sorely,
but will recoup some of the wins that left town with Hamilton in the new wins gained by opposing
teams wanting to punch Pierzynski in the face so bad that they forget about
trying to win the actual game.
4th place – Seattle Mariners
This year’s edition of the Mariners tried to get a little
better, but there is little hope of catching up to all of its old division
rivals. The good news for Seattle
is that it has a new division rival that – short of a plane crash – it can’t
possibly finish behind. The M’s still don’t have a ton of star power, but at
least they aren’t pathetic.
The one person on this team that any fan would know is Felix
Hernandez. Seattle
smartly locked him down to a long term extension. The problem, however, is that
even die-hard baseball fans like myself have trouble recognizing another of the
other four starters (or most of the bullpen) that Seattle is set to trot out
this season.
Looking at the field, the Mariners aren’t great, but they
also aren’t horrible. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley are still promising
youngsters and the duo of Kandrys Morales and Michael Morse could make a better
than average middle of the order if everything goes right.
The Mariners are doing a decent enough job of rebuilding
their franchise, but the crappy part of that process is that you have to
willingly go through a few bad years before any progress is shown. If Seattle can stay the
course and stick to its convictions, there is definitely a light at the end of
the tunnel.
5th place – Houston Astros
Great news for Astros fans. You definitely aren’t headed
towards another sixth place finish. Less great news – this is only the case
because your new division only has five members.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this team found a way
to finish sixth in a five-team race. I know that rebuilding can be rough and I
realize that there are some baseball players who are grossly overpaid, but
there’s really no excuse for the Astros paying their entire 25-man roster less
than what Alex Rodriguez will make. That’s not a joke. Hand to God. That’s
true.
For the second consecutive season, the Astros coast into the
clubhouse with the title of team that is least likely to have any of its
players taken in a fantasy draft. The only real possibilities that an Astro
will go in your draft is if your league is deep enough that Jose Altuve becomes
attractive or if you have a player in your league that has been in a coma since
2008 that jumps on Carlos Pena.
Well, that’s it for today. Tune in again tomorrow as most of
the league gets things underway. I’ll be unveiling my thoughts on the National
League, as well as my playoff predictions, tomorrow afternoon.