Alright guys. That A.L. stuff from yesterday was fun but –
unless I’m swinging and missing at guessing my target audience – I’m assuming
the most of you are more concerned with the National League. Sorry to keep you
waiting, but you know… cliffhangers and such.
Anyways, let’s get down to it.
The National League once again enters a season perceived as
the inferior of the two. This has been the case for the last four years – never
mind the fact that the N.L. has won the last three World Series.
I think that the perception has to do with all of the
parity. The division races are a lot tougher to call over here in the N.L. The
American League also gets a bump for having more recognizable superstars, but
it takes all 25 guys to win a title.
Let’s see who will get it done from the National League this
season.
N.L. East
1st place – Washington Nationals
It’s tough not to call the Nationals the favorite in their
division and in the entire league. Washington
spent the better part of the last decade cleverly tooling around with such
incredible incompetence that few people even realized how strong their farm
system was getting with all of those top picks.
The entire world is now seeing the Nats’ endgame play out
nicely as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper are among the biggest stars in the
game before either has turned 25.
The Nats seemed destined to take it all last year before MLB
saw that the organization’s horrible attributes had shifted from the field to
the front office. General Manager Mike Rizzo announced in the spring that a
perfectly healthy Strasburg would be shut down after 160 innings, regardless of
his or the team’s success. Strasburg proceeded to throw about 160 innings of Cy
Young-caliber baseball, then played the role of perfectly healthy bystander as
the Nats went down in flames in the NLDS.
This season, Strasburg has no limit and Harper will spend
the entire season at the MLB level. Those factors would beg you to pencil them
in for at least an N.L. championship, but keep in mind the never-before-seen
great offense that Ian Desmond and Adam LaRouche contributed. If those were
just flukes, it will still be a grind for Washington in a tough division.
2nd place – Atlanta
Braves
It’s hard to believe that the Braves have exactly one
postseason win in the last seven seasons. That’s not a knock on Atlanta. Plenty of teams
can’t even boast that much and a fall from the insane 1991-2005 run was bound
to end sometime.
To their credit, the Braves don’t seem amused in the
slightest over this recent dry spell and have responded by assembling a team
that most will be wary of for 2013.
Whether you’re a fan of monstrous home runs or Herculean
swings and misses, this year’s Braves are for you. Sure, a lineup filled with
the likes of two Uptons, Brian McCann and Dan Uggla is going to make for some
frustrating nights for Braves fans, but it will also turn quite a few games
into home run derbies that Atlanta
will be favored to win.
The Braves are going to score runs. They’re going to do so
at a scary pace. And looking at a bullpen that includes Eric O’Flaherty, Jordan
Walden and Craig Kimbrel, you can chalk up a win anytime the Braves make it to
the 7th inning with a lead.
The big question marks are in the starting rotation. Hoping
for a healthy Tim Hudson, the continued dominance of Kris Medlen and for Mike
Minor and Julio Teheran to realize their full potential seems like a bit much.
Turn off the offense’s power for a few series along the way and I think that Washington will be just
a bit better.
3rd place – Philadelphia Phillies
Speaking of having to hope for a lot to go right, Phillies
fans are at that horrible crossroads of knowing that their team has the talent
to be great, but being even more certain of the fact that
injuries/age/competition are likely to leave them on the outside looking in
come postseason time.
The Phillies stepped aside as five-time defending division
champs last season with a disheartening 81-81 mark. The forward strides taken
by Atlanta and Washington in the offseason would seem to
put the writing on the wall for the Phillies, but there are still reasons to be
optimistic.
Prolonged injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, plus
consistently horrible middle relief, took Philly all but out of contention for
the division title before the All-Star break in 2012. But Utley and Howard
returned in the second half, and that bullpen was considerably less awful. The
Phils were too far back to get into October, but notched a 44-31 record in the
second half.
With Utley and Howard expected to play full seasons, the
emergence of top prospect Dominic Brown, and the addition of Mike Adams to the
back end of the bullpen, it will probably only take 2-3 beers to talk a
Phillies fan into thinking that they can take back the crown this season.
4th place – New York Mets
For Braves fans who didn’t like the fact that Tom Glavine left
for more money at the end of his career, at least take solace in the fact that
he helped to destroy a division rival.
Glavine took the mound for the Mets on September 30, 2007.
Just one season before, the Mets were three innings away from the World Series
before losing to St. Louis.
Just 18 days prior, New York
led the division by seven games. The Mets pissed it all away, then Glavine gave
up eight runs in the first inning of the final game of the season to lose the
division for the Amazins. Since that fateful day, New York is a cumulative 389-421.
Johan Santana – the Mets’ free agent steal in 2008 – has
been a disaster. Citi Field has been a slightly more expensive disaster with a
stupid animatronic apple that somehow made the cut to come over from Shea
Stadium. Last year, R.A. Dickey provided a bright spot, riding a rags-to-riches
fairy tale of a season to the Cy Young Award. Clearly in violation of the Mets’
“we aren’t aiming for success” protocol, Dickey was promptly traded away.
Santana – perhaps sensing this year’s dumpster fire of a
team – has already managed to reinjure his pitching arm. The rest of the roster
reads as one great player (David Wright), one potentially great player (Ike
Davis), and a ton of guys who will make Wright and Davis think that the Mets
have surrounded them with extras for some new reality show they’re filming.
5th place - Miami Marlins
At least the Mets’ lack of success can be attributed to
good, old-fashioned not being any good at building a team or evaluating talent.
Where the Miami Marlins are concerned, all of the hard times that they will
suffer this season can be blamed squarely on a front office that obviously
doesn’t care about winning baseball games.
Last season, the Marlins basically bought the entire free
agent class, opened up a shiny – if tacky – new stadium, then said ‘to hell
with it’ when things didn’t immediately work out.
In the aftermath of the Marlins’ fire sale, Miami is left with a bunch of below average
or way-past-prime talent, and a pair of good players (Giancarlo Stanton and
Ricky Nolasco) who must have slept through the alarm and failed to get off the
sinking ship.
As for that new stadium, it’s the biggest disaster since…
well… the 2012 Marlins offseason antics. Half of this season’s attendance is
probably going to come from drunken Dominican
Republic fans who are just waking up from those WBC
contests held in Miami.
With no fans and that huge stadium bill to pay, a cut-rate
roster isn’t going to be enough to stay profitable. This is where the Marlins
have accidentally stumbled into a goldmine. That weird neon green that covers
the outfield walls is hideous, but it is also perfect to use as a green screen.
They have millions in potential digitally rendered advertisements just sitting
out there, unrealized. Might as well sell it. There sure won’t be any fans or
good players to distract attention from the ads.
N.L. Central
1st place – Cincinnati Reds
I’m an offensive guy. I like home runs. I like hit-and-runs.
I like to swear a lot (my offensiveness is well-rounded). For all of these
reasons, I am way up on the Reds.
Simply put, there are very few places for pitchers to hide
when facing the Reds’ lineup. They have frightening guys like Joey Votto Jay
Bruce and (sometimes) Ryan Ludwick. They have promising up-and-comers like Zack
Cozart and Todd Frazier. They even have under-the-radar killers like Shin-Soo
Choo.
Add to that lineup a pretty solid starting rotation and the
possibility of Aroldis Chapman throwing 102-MPH hellfire out of the bullpen and
the Reds are going to be tough to beat.
The biggest threat to Cincinnati
is the weight of expectations. The good news is that they have a scary team in
2013. The bad news is that they’ve had a pretty intimidating squad for the last
3-4 seasons. Cincy has some great pieces, but those pieces don’t stay great
forever. The window is still open for a great run, but the task only gets
tougher when teams focus on their own ticking clock.
2nd place – St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals aren’t always great, but they’re the best in
the league at not being terrible. It’s been 23 years since a St. Louis team has finished in last place.
Heck, the Cards have only done worse than third place once since the turn of
the millennium.
The 2013 Cardinals might not be world beaters, but they
aren’t an easy out either. Getting word that Chris Carpenter’s career is likely
over was a huge blow to absorb in spring training, but is says a lot about this
team that the postseason is still a viable goal.
With Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and a bunch
of other hitters who just REEK of scrappiness and clutch, the offense should be
just fine. But the Cardinals’ arms might be a season-long struggle. Adam
Wainwright might be a Cy Young contender, but there is little other than some
raw talent and potential filling out the rotation.
Jason Motte is also on the shelf with an ‘elbow strain’.
Even if that is as benign as it sounds, it’s still something that you never
want to hear mentioned in the same sentence as someone who throws 98-MPH gas.
3rd place – Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s hard not to feel for the Pirates after the last two
seasons. Already the owners of the longest stretch of consecutive losing
seasons in professional sports, Pittsburgh flirted with above-averageness in
each of the last two seasons, only to see their dreams come crashing down.
I’m not predicting that this will be the year that the
20-year streak of losing records ends, but I’m not sure that it will take more
than an 80-82 record to notch third place in this division.
But enough with that pesky streak. Let’s look at all of Pittsburgh’s positives.
The Pirates have a breakout star in Andrew McCutchen and may
have a future star on their hands if Starling Marte continues to progress in
his first full year at the top level. The rest of the lineup has enough talent
and experience to put up some runs throughout the season.
The biggest plus for the Pirates is the pitching. The Bucs
finally have a rotation that should give them more quality starts than not and
Jason Grilli could be the next big thing among the recent rash of young
closers.
4th place – Milwaukee Brewers
After committing to all of my standings predictions, the
Brewers are my biggest surprise.
With former MVP Ryan Braun and household names like Aramis
Ramirez, Rickie Weeks and Yovanni Gallardo on the roster, Milwaukee could very well have the talent to
continue the upward climb that it was on from 2008-2011.
But something just doesn’t feel right. Even the addition of
Kyle Lohse still doesn’t guarantee a good rotation and plenty of question marks
like Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Gonzalez will be depended on in everyday roles.
Then there’s the elephant that refuses to leave the room.
The suspension-turned-acquittal of Braun’s failed drug test before last season
left plenty of people unsure of Braun’s honesty or true talent. A great 2012
season seamed to silence critics, but more links to PEDs have made Braun one of
the most reviled players in baseball among his peers. He’ll probably still
mash, but having that kind of stink follow you around can cause harm to the
entire team.
5th place – Chicago Cubs
Can we please do another comedy movie that features the
Cubs? They really, really need it.
Think about it. The Indians got a new stadium and a pair of
American League championships in the decade following the first Major League
movie. We were entertained by Billy Heywood in Little Big League, which
immediately preceded the Moneyball-esque success of the Twinkies that was
covered in the A.L. preview. It took about a decade, but even L.A. got a World Series title after Angels in
the Outfield.
In my opinion, Rookie of the Year is the second best of all
those flicks, yet the Cubs never got their due. In the 20 years (God, I’m
getting old) since that movie was released, the Cubbies have finished in fourth
place or worse 12 times.
This season doesn’t appear to be a sign of better things to
come as only three players on the roster are All-Star caliber. Anthony Rizzo
and Starlin Castro are the only two that are really good at playing baseball,
but I include Alfonso Soriano since he still collects huge checks at an
All-Star level.
Personally, I think that the greatness of ‘Rookie of the
Year’ earned the Cubs the 2003 world championship until Bartman messed with the
order of the universe.
N.L. West
1st place – Los Angeles Dodgers
Just as I was leery of picking the Red Sox to finish last, I
have some reservations about picking the team that relieved Boston of its vital parts to finish in front
of the defending world champions.
The Dodgers took a lot of flack for absorbing the massive
contracts held by underperforming stars Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh
Beckett. This could all turn out to be a huge train wreck, but I see a method
in the madness.
Those guys were all stars in markets where baseball came
second. Once they had to endure the Boston
media, their entire approach to the game was hindered. Say what you will about
their mental toughness, but the usual optimism of Dodger fans – along with the
much more relaxed atmosphere – puts all of these guys right back in their
wheelhouse.
Throw in Zack Greinke (if these spring elbow issues die
down) and the return of Hanley Ramirez in May and the Dodgers could start
looking like a franchise that is worth the $2 billion that they sold for last year.
2nd place – San Francisco Giants
When you play in a stadium where you might be murdered by
seagulls (watch some of the WBC highlights) even a pair of World Series titles
in three seasons can’t keep you from having some sideways glances thrown your
way.
The Giants have an insane group of arms in their rotation
and bullpen. Beyond insane, really. Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito both have Cy
Young’s to their name, and they are, by far, the two guys in this year’s
rotation with the least impressive stuff. Things only get worse for opposing
hitters as Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo lie in wait in the
bullpen to close games out.
San Francisco
found a way to win it all in 2012 without a very explosive offense, but past
success can’t be recalled to dictate future results. The Giants are still a
team that rates as average – maybe – in most offensive categories.
Buster Posey is a stud in the middle of the order, but the
modest power of Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval is mitigated by one of the most
pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. After those three, it’s down to a
bunch of punch hitters that will do well to get a few clutch hits all year.
The Giants might well win it all again this year, but if
they do, it will be on the back of another dominant run of pitching and not
because they’re more talented than some of the other teams in the league.
3rd place – San Diego Padres
There isn’t much expected of the Padres this year, but I
think that just creates a better environment for a lot of young talent to
flourish.
Most baseball fans are well aware of 2012 N.L. RBI champ
Chase Headley, but there hasn’t been much reason of late to get familiar with
any other players in the organization. I’m not going to project greatness for
this year’s Padres, but if any team come out of absolutely nowhere a la the
2012 Orioles, this could be the squad.
If that underdog story does play out, stadium renovations
could prove to be one of the best organizational moves that the Padres have
made in a long time. Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso both possess plenty of
power, but it’s power that would have been negated while playing in cavernous Petco Park’s
previous dimensions. This season, the fences have been moved in.
The Padres’ offense should get the obvious boost in
production as former fly balls turn into doubles and home runs. This change is
accentuated by the fact that a pitching staff featuring Edinson Volquez,
Clayton Richard, Luke Gregorson and Huston
Street can keep opposing bats quiet no matter the
field dimensions.
Of the 10 available playoffs spots, there are probably only
13-14 teams that most analysts would agree are in the race for October. The
Padres are not one of those teams, but if everything plays out right, they could
be this year’s Cinderella.
4th place – Arizona Diamondbacks
While the Padres seem to be full of unrealized potential,
the 2013 Diamondbacks look like they might be riding the coattails of the
one-time greatness displayed by several of their players.
Right off the bat, the D’backs seem like they could be
offensively challenged. Cody Ross, Aaron Hill and Martin Prado have doubles
power that can include home runs, but there is no true cleanup hitter. Stout
pitching rotations within the division, combined with plenty of pitcher’s parks
(including their own) housing most of their games could make the Diamondbacks a
low-scoring bunch.
If pitcher’s duels become the norm, Arizona probably isn’t in great shape. Ace
starter Ian Kennedy is a solid pitcher, but his 21-win performance in 2010 is
way more than anyone should expect from him for the rest of his career. Brandon
McCarthy could turn out to be a great signing, but he only has one good year in
the bigs and ended last season with a line drive off the head, followed by
brain surgery.
If all of the pieces of this hodge-podge of a team work well
together, they’ll be just fine. In the much more likely scenario that injuries
occur or that a few guys don’t live up to their past numbers, the D’backs could
be in for a long season.
5th place – Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are full of
guys who have had some spectacular years in the big leagues. The problem is
that – with the exception of that miracle run to the World Series six years ago
– none of those players have had those big years at the some time.
Carlos Gonzalez can be a 30/30 guy, or he can sputter
without protection. Troy Tulowitzki can be the best shortstop in the game, or
he can get dinged up and never make it back to 100 percent health. The closest
thing to consistency on this team is Todd Helton. He’s a Hall of Famer in my
book, but his best years are far behind him and he can’t be counted on to make
the Rockies’ offense imposing.
When it comes to the pitching, Colorado has apparently elected to punt. The
Rockies suffered a lot of injuries to their
top five starters – all of whom are healthy for this season – but those guys
were pretty much awful even before they got hurt. Combined with the pitcher’s
nightmare that is Coors Field, the all-alliteration quintet of Jorge (De La
Rosa), Jhoulys (Chacin), Juan (Nicasio), Jeff (Francis) and John (Garland) might have their
confidence shattered before May gets here.
POSTSEASON
Crap. I thought that I was in the home stretch. With 10
teams in the postseason, there’s still another few miles to go in this
marathon. Give me a cup of Gatorade and I’ll try not to poop myself while
running down how October is going to play out.
Wild Card Games
Toronto over Oakland
The Blue Jays aren’t the superpower that some people think,
but lackluster years from the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox allow them to rack
up wins and claim the top wild card spot. In a one-off game against the A’s, Toronto’s powerful lineup
smacks a few home runs to stay alive.
Atlanta over St. Louis
In a revenge game from last season, the Braves once again
host a one-game playoff against the Cardinals. This time around, Medlen pitches
a little bit better, Atlanta’s
defense plays a lot better, and Justin Upton seals the win with a 450-foot
infield fly into the left field seats.
Division Series
L.A. Angels over Toronto (3-1)
All of those big bats in the Toronto lineup will be silenced by the
Angels’ solid starting pitching and the cool October air. The Blue Jays have a
few glorified slow pitch softball guys who can hit it 500 feet, but the Angels
have athletes who can hit home runs AND leg out doubles and triples when their
shots don’t clear the fence.
Detroit over Tampa Bay
(3-2)
In the most entertaining division series, the home team wins
all five games with late runs in pitcher’s duels. Detroit just barely gets through after being
afforded the opportunity to rest regular starters and set up its rotation
perfectly after clinching the Central in mid-September.
Atlanta over Washington (3-1)
The Braves hit a cold streak early in the year and fall a
handful of games behind the Nationals. Atlanta
will regain its form and catch fire, but won’t quite catch up in the regular
season, leading to a playoff showdown. After hearing all season that the
Nationals are just better, the Braves’ starting pitchers step it up a notch. Atlanta’s big bats connect for a few clutch hits off of Washington’s starters and Atlanta pulls the upset.
Cincinnati over L.A. Dodgers (3-0)
The Reds prove traditionalist wrong as their good hitting
defeats the Dodgers’ good pitching. Los Angeles’ rotation can be overpowering,
but the Reds’ best hitters have the ability to dial it down at the plate and
just find a way to get on base and start a rally. In the other dugout, the
middle of the Dodgers’ order is too hit-or-miss. Cincinnati’s starting pitching isn’t elite,
but it will take care of a Dodgers team that is pressing too hard to live up to
expectations.
League Championship Series
L.A. Angels over Detroit (4-2)
Justin Verlander shuts down the Angels in both of his
starts, but the Tigers can’t find anyone else who can navigate the Angels’
deadly batting order. The Angels – having already outlasted their cross-town
rivals – come into the series playing loose and silence all of the critics who
blasted them for coming up short in 2012.
Cincinnati over Atlanta (4-2)
The Braves have the making of a team that can win a World
Series or two, but they have one more year of growing pains ahead of them.
After a decade and a half of riding strong starting pitching deep into October,
that facet of the game turns on the Braves in the NLCS. Paul Maholm won’t pitch
well enough to make the postseason rotation and the combination of Bruce and
Votto feast on the right-handed Atlanta
starters. The Braves’ offense will get its shots in, but Aroldis Chapman will
blow away hitters in notching three saves in the series.
World Series
L.A. Angels over Cincinnati (4-1)
Remember how I talked about the National League exceeding
expectations over the last few years? Yeah, well there’s a reason that everyone
keeps saying that the American League is better. The Angels could have been a
title contender last year, but took too long to heat up. Los Angeles got even stronger over the
offseason and will certainly be more focused as the 2013 season begins. The
Angels will win their division by a comfortable margin and outlast the other
2-3 possible title contenders in the league to make it to the Fall Classic.
Once there, the Angels’ bats continue to mash and the Reds can’t keep up. Mark
it down now – The Los Angeles Angels are your 2013 champs.