The blind squirrel finds a nut

Let’s face it, people. It’s going to be a long, loss-filled summer for the Houston Astros.

Out of respect for an organization that nobody has any reason to dislike, most commentators and analysts are trying to take the high road when talking about the Astros. You’ll hear things like ‘They have just committed to totally restructuring and starting from the beginning,’ or ‘Houston has some great young talent in their system, so the future will be brighter.’

I also have no reason to hate Houston, but I’m not going to sugar-coat things. The Astros might be historically bad. This squad would have a tough time competing in Triple-A.

Still, aside from the opening night fervor of Houston’s 1-0 start and the six-game losing streak that immediately followed it, I heard something that made me think that the Astros aren’t totally incompetent. While the major league club is going to be a 25-man piñata for the A.L. West in 2013, the farm system is going to be identifying the MLB players of the future by using a tactic that I have advocated for a few years now.

The meat of Houston’s minor league talent is pitching. The organization has stockpiled tons of young arms that have the potential to be contributors at the highest level of play. Many other organizations have tried to build through pitching, but the problem is that pitching is one of the toughest positions to keep healthy and to accurately project from season to season.

But where many other teams have crapped out by choosing just a few of their 18 and 19 year old low minors pitchers and focusing all efforts in developing them – only to see them flame out – the Astros are taking a novel new approach.

Both the Triple-A and Double-A affiliates for Houston started the season with three or four guys designated as bullpen guys and eight others who are going to start games. Those eight starters are going to form four two-man tandems, with each slated to go about four innings or twice through the order. The next time through the rotation, they’ll switch places.

At the minor league level, this strategy mainly serves to get as many possible looks at potential starting pitchers in an extended outing. Once the season is a few months old, the Astros will select those who they want to start on a regular basis and move others into bullpen roles. I think that this is a great way to more efficiently develop arms in the minor leagues.

But here’s the thing. I think there is a strong case to be made for using a version of this strategy in the major leagues.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not talking about teaming up ace pitchers with other guys and shortening their outings. Most major league clubs have at least three or four guys who are capable of giving you more than half a game’s worth of decent pitching. However, even the better teams in the league often have trouble finding a quality pitcher to be their No. 5 starter.

My solution is to use that tandem tactic for the final spot in the rotation. Most of the guys already in the No. 5 slot are little more than long relief guys pressed into the rotation or fading veterans who can’t dominate anymore. Instead of praying that your No. 5 guy gets through his start without leaving in the third inning, why not designate two of those guys who don’t have the makeup of a front-line starter or a lights-out reliever to share the burden?

Even those guys at the end of the rotation’s or bullpen’s depth chart are usually able to make it through the lineup once without a ton of trouble. After all, they have made it all the way to the majors. The problem with these guys usually stems from not being able to maintain their speed/location or the fact that they only have one or two quality pitches. By the second and third time through an opponent’s lineup, guys have seen everything the pitcher has to offer and start to tee off.

By assigning the first 3-4 innings to one of these middling arms and having another ready to do the same, you can cut out a lot of those issues. Instead of managers having to play a cat-and-mouse game with trying to get as much out of his fifth starter as possible without allowing a big inning to occur, he can go into that No. 5 slot pretty confident that the team will get to at least the fifth or sixth inning before the rest of the bullpen gets pressed into action.

In the best case scenario, both guys pitch pretty well and the team cruises into the late innings with a good chance to win the game. In the worst case scenario, you can still hang on to the starter a little longer than you would otherwise and have the second guy enter the game knowing that his main job is to eat innings.

Either way, the end result will be a fully rested bullpen as the rotation turns over and the team’s best pitchers get their turn. If the No. 5 slot turns out even 8-10 wins over 30 or so starts, that wouldn’t be anything worse than one would expect from an average fifth starter. Throw in the added benefit of not having to worry about depleting the bullpen to save the fifth starter and the plusses of creating a tandem with much more predictable and manageable outcomes than the normal No. 5 starter far outweighs the risks of carrying one less guy at the back of the bullpen.

Of course, the obvious place to break in this theory is the American League. With limited switching of position players and without the concern of hitting for a pitcher in the batting order, it is much easier to justify using two guys to make up what is effectively one roster spot. If pressed, AL teams could go as far as to carry as many as 14 pitchers, with one super-utility OF and IF, along with a backup catcher.

Obviously, that’s a far-fetched scenario, but that doesn’t mean that better alternatives can’t be reached.

The only real argument to the tandem starter idea is that it would cost a team (especially in the position-switch-happy NL) either a pitcher or a bat off the bench. But it can easily be argued that more consistency in what can be expected out of the last spot in the rotation – even if that means using two guys – can make up for a shallower bullpen or bench.

With that in mind, even National League teams could probably afford to give this system a try if they aren’t totally sold on the lowest starting pitcher on their totem pole.

Throughout most of baseball’s history, the pitching aspect of assembling a roster has been incredibly easy. All that teams have ever had to do is find a few guys that are really good at getting batters out and then keep a few other arms in tow, just in case of a bad day.

Since players have only gotten stronger and more durable (and pitches have only gotten nastier) over time, the only viable reason that more pitchers appear on today’s rosters has to do with money. It will take a bold team to make a stand and say that it would rather construct a more efficient rotation, even if it comes at the expense of a big-money closer or setup man. Then again, all of the big innovations and paradigm shifts in sports stem from teams or coaches who are willing to make drastic changes before anyone else advocates them or realizes their potential effectiveness.

Sooner or later, some team is going to have a less-than-stellar rotation and decide to stop essentially punting every fifth game as a less-than-MLB-caliber pitcher takes the mound. If that team is ballsy enough to look at the numbers and realize that carrying two OK arms in the form of one starter is better than having one designated No. 5 starter and a cleanup guy at the back of the bullpen, then I would bet that they have some success and finally bring a new trend to baseball that doesn’t involve a record-breaking contract.