The blind squirrel finds a nut

Let’s face it, people. It’s going to be a long, loss-filled summer for the Houston Astros.

Out of respect for an organization that nobody has any reason to dislike, most commentators and analysts are trying to take the high road when talking about the Astros. You’ll hear things like ‘They have just committed to totally restructuring and starting from the beginning,’ or ‘Houston has some great young talent in their system, so the future will be brighter.’

I also have no reason to hate Houston, but I’m not going to sugar-coat things. The Astros might be historically bad. This squad would have a tough time competing in Triple-A.

Still, aside from the opening night fervor of Houston’s 1-0 start and the six-game losing streak that immediately followed it, I heard something that made me think that the Astros aren’t totally incompetent. While the major league club is going to be a 25-man piñata for the A.L. West in 2013, the farm system is going to be identifying the MLB players of the future by using a tactic that I have advocated for a few years now.

The meat of Houston’s minor league talent is pitching. The organization has stockpiled tons of young arms that have the potential to be contributors at the highest level of play. Many other organizations have tried to build through pitching, but the problem is that pitching is one of the toughest positions to keep healthy and to accurately project from season to season.

But where many other teams have crapped out by choosing just a few of their 18 and 19 year old low minors pitchers and focusing all efforts in developing them – only to see them flame out – the Astros are taking a novel new approach.

Both the Triple-A and Double-A affiliates for Houston started the season with three or four guys designated as bullpen guys and eight others who are going to start games. Those eight starters are going to form four two-man tandems, with each slated to go about four innings or twice through the order. The next time through the rotation, they’ll switch places.

At the minor league level, this strategy mainly serves to get as many possible looks at potential starting pitchers in an extended outing. Once the season is a few months old, the Astros will select those who they want to start on a regular basis and move others into bullpen roles. I think that this is a great way to more efficiently develop arms in the minor leagues.

But here’s the thing. I think there is a strong case to be made for using a version of this strategy in the major leagues.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not talking about teaming up ace pitchers with other guys and shortening their outings. Most major league clubs have at least three or four guys who are capable of giving you more than half a game’s worth of decent pitching. However, even the better teams in the league often have trouble finding a quality pitcher to be their No. 5 starter.

My solution is to use that tandem tactic for the final spot in the rotation. Most of the guys already in the No. 5 slot are little more than long relief guys pressed into the rotation or fading veterans who can’t dominate anymore. Instead of praying that your No. 5 guy gets through his start without leaving in the third inning, why not designate two of those guys who don’t have the makeup of a front-line starter or a lights-out reliever to share the burden?

Even those guys at the end of the rotation’s or bullpen’s depth chart are usually able to make it through the lineup once without a ton of trouble. After all, they have made it all the way to the majors. The problem with these guys usually stems from not being able to maintain their speed/location or the fact that they only have one or two quality pitches. By the second and third time through an opponent’s lineup, guys have seen everything the pitcher has to offer and start to tee off.

By assigning the first 3-4 innings to one of these middling arms and having another ready to do the same, you can cut out a lot of those issues. Instead of managers having to play a cat-and-mouse game with trying to get as much out of his fifth starter as possible without allowing a big inning to occur, he can go into that No. 5 slot pretty confident that the team will get to at least the fifth or sixth inning before the rest of the bullpen gets pressed into action.

In the best case scenario, both guys pitch pretty well and the team cruises into the late innings with a good chance to win the game. In the worst case scenario, you can still hang on to the starter a little longer than you would otherwise and have the second guy enter the game knowing that his main job is to eat innings.

Either way, the end result will be a fully rested bullpen as the rotation turns over and the team’s best pitchers get their turn. If the No. 5 slot turns out even 8-10 wins over 30 or so starts, that wouldn’t be anything worse than one would expect from an average fifth starter. Throw in the added benefit of not having to worry about depleting the bullpen to save the fifth starter and the plusses of creating a tandem with much more predictable and manageable outcomes than the normal No. 5 starter far outweighs the risks of carrying one less guy at the back of the bullpen.

Of course, the obvious place to break in this theory is the American League. With limited switching of position players and without the concern of hitting for a pitcher in the batting order, it is much easier to justify using two guys to make up what is effectively one roster spot. If pressed, AL teams could go as far as to carry as many as 14 pitchers, with one super-utility OF and IF, along with a backup catcher.

Obviously, that’s a far-fetched scenario, but that doesn’t mean that better alternatives can’t be reached.

The only real argument to the tandem starter idea is that it would cost a team (especially in the position-switch-happy NL) either a pitcher or a bat off the bench. But it can easily be argued that more consistency in what can be expected out of the last spot in the rotation – even if that means using two guys – can make up for a shallower bullpen or bench.

With that in mind, even National League teams could probably afford to give this system a try if they aren’t totally sold on the lowest starting pitcher on their totem pole.

Throughout most of baseball’s history, the pitching aspect of assembling a roster has been incredibly easy. All that teams have ever had to do is find a few guys that are really good at getting batters out and then keep a few other arms in tow, just in case of a bad day.

Since players have only gotten stronger and more durable (and pitches have only gotten nastier) over time, the only viable reason that more pitchers appear on today’s rosters has to do with money. It will take a bold team to make a stand and say that it would rather construct a more efficient rotation, even if it comes at the expense of a big-money closer or setup man. Then again, all of the big innovations and paradigm shifts in sports stem from teams or coaches who are willing to make drastic changes before anyone else advocates them or realizes their potential effectiveness.

Sooner or later, some team is going to have a less-than-stellar rotation and decide to stop essentially punting every fifth game as a less-than-MLB-caliber pitcher takes the mound. If that team is ballsy enough to look at the numbers and realize that carrying two OK arms in the form of one starter is better than having one designated No. 5 starter and a cleanup guy at the back of the bullpen, then I would bet that they have some success and finally bring a new trend to baseball that doesn’t involve a record-breaking contract.

2013 MLB Preview: Senior Circuit Edition

Alright guys. That A.L. stuff from yesterday was fun but – unless I’m swinging and missing at guessing my target audience – I’m assuming the most of you are more concerned with the National League. Sorry to keep you waiting, but you know… cliffhangers and such.

Anyways, let’s get down to it.

The National League once again enters a season perceived as the inferior of the two. This has been the case for the last four years – never mind the fact that the N.L. has won the last three World Series.

I think that the perception has to do with all of the parity. The division races are a lot tougher to call over here in the N.L. The American League also gets a bump for having more recognizable superstars, but it takes all 25 guys to win a title.

Let’s see who will get it done from the National League this season.

N.L. East

1^st place – Washington Nationals

It’s tough not to call the Nationals the favorite in their division and in the entire league. Washington spent the better part of the last decade cleverly tooling around with such incredible incompetence that few people even realized how strong their farm system was getting with all of those top picks.

The entire world is now seeing the Nats’ endgame play out nicely as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper are among the biggest stars in the game before either has turned 25.

The Nats seemed destined to take it all last year before MLB saw that the organization’s horrible attributes had shifted from the field to the front office. General Manager Mike Rizzo announced in the spring that a perfectly healthy Strasburg would be shut down after 160 innings, regardless of his or the team’s success. Strasburg proceeded to throw about 160 innings of Cy Young-caliber baseball, then played the role of perfectly healthy bystander as the Nats went down in flames in the NLDS.

This season, Strasburg has no limit and Harper will spend the entire season at the MLB level. Those factors would beg you to pencil them in for at least an N.L. championship, but keep in mind the never-before-seen great offense that Ian Desmond and Adam LaRouche contributed. If those were just flukes, it will still be a grind for Washington in a tough division.

2^nd place – Atlanta Braves

It’s hard to believe that the Braves have exactly one postseason win in the last seven seasons. That’s not a knock on Atlanta. Plenty of teams can’t even boast that much and a fall from the insane 1991-2005 run was bound to end sometime.

To their credit, the Braves don’t seem amused in the slightest over this recent dry spell and have responded by assembling a team that most will be wary of for 2013.

Whether you’re a fan of monstrous home runs or Herculean swings and misses, this year’s Braves are for you. Sure, a lineup filled with the likes of two Uptons, Brian McCann and Dan Uggla is going to make for some frustrating nights for Braves fans, but it will also turn quite a few games into home run derbies that Atlanta will be favored to win.

The Braves are going to score runs. They’re going to do so at a scary pace. And looking at a bullpen that includes Eric O’Flaherty, Jordan Walden and Craig Kimbrel, you can chalk up a win anytime the Braves make it to the 7^th inning with a lead.

The big question marks are in the starting rotation. Hoping for a healthy Tim Hudson, the continued dominance of Kris Medlen and for Mike Minor and Julio Teheran to realize their full potential seems like a bit much. Turn off the offense’s power for a few series along the way and I think that Washington will be just a bit better.

3^rd place – Philadelphia Phillies

Speaking of having to hope for a lot to go right, Phillies fans are at that horrible crossroads of knowing that their team has the talent to be great, but being even more certain of the fact that injuries/age/competition are likely to leave them on the outside looking in come postseason time.

The Phillies stepped aside as five-time defending division champs last season with a disheartening 81-81 mark. The forward strides taken by Atlanta and Washington in the offseason would seem to put the writing on the wall for the Phillies, but there are still reasons to be optimistic.

Prolonged injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, plus consistently horrible middle relief, took Philly all but out of contention for the division title before the All-Star break in 2012. But Utley and Howard returned in the second half, and that bullpen was considerably less awful. The Phils were too far back to get into October, but notched a 44-31 record in the second half.

With Utley and Howard expected to play full seasons, the emergence of top prospect Dominic Brown, and the addition of Mike Adams to the back end of the bullpen, it will probably only take 2-3 beers to talk a Phillies fan into thinking that they can take back the crown this season.

4^th place – New York Mets

For Braves fans who didn’t like the fact that Tom Glavine left for more money at the end of his career, at least take solace in the fact that he helped to destroy a division rival.

Glavine took the mound for the Mets on September 30, 2007. Just one season before, the Mets were three innings away from the World Series before losing to St. Louis. Just 18 days prior, New York led the division by seven games. The Mets pissed it all away, then Glavine gave up eight runs in the first inning of the final game of the season to lose the division for the Amazins. Since that fateful day, New York is a cumulative 389-421.

Johan Santana – the Mets’ free agent steal in 2008 – has been a disaster. Citi Field has been a slightly more expensive disaster with a stupid animatronic apple that somehow made the cut to come over from Shea Stadium. Last year, R.A. Dickey provided a bright spot, riding a rags-to-riches fairy tale of a season to the Cy Young Award. Clearly in violation of the Mets’ “we aren’t aiming for success” protocol, Dickey was promptly traded away.

Santana – perhaps sensing this year’s dumpster fire of a team – has already managed to reinjure his pitching arm. The rest of the roster reads as one great player (David Wright), one potentially great player (Ike Davis), and a ton of guys who will make Wright and Davis think that the Mets have surrounded them with extras for some new reality show they’re filming.

5^th place - Miami Marlins

At least the Mets’ lack of success can be attributed to good, old-fashioned not being any good at building a team or evaluating talent. Where the Miami Marlins are concerned, all of the hard times that they will suffer this season can be blamed squarely on a front office that obviously doesn’t care about winning baseball games.

Last season, the Marlins basically bought the entire free agent class, opened up a shiny – if tacky – new stadium, then said ‘to hell with it’ when things didn’t immediately work out.

In the aftermath of the Marlins’ fire sale, Miami is left with a bunch of below average or way-past-prime talent, and a pair of good players (Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco) who must have slept through the alarm and failed to get off the sinking ship.

As for that new stadium, it’s the biggest disaster since… well… the 2012 Marlins offseason antics. Half of this season’s attendance is probably going to come from drunken Dominican Republic fans who are just waking up from those WBC contests held in Miami.

With no fans and that huge stadium bill to pay, a cut-rate roster isn’t going to be enough to stay profitable. This is where the Marlins have accidentally stumbled into a goldmine. That weird neon green that covers the outfield walls is hideous, but it is also perfect to use as a green screen. They have millions in potential digitally rendered advertisements just sitting out there, unrealized. Might as well sell it. There sure won’t be any fans or good players to distract attention from the ads.

N.L. Central

1^st place – Cincinnati Reds

I’m an offensive guy. I like home runs. I like hit-and-runs. I like to swear a lot (my offensiveness is well-rounded). For all of these reasons, I am way up on the Reds.

Simply put, there are very few places for pitchers to hide when facing the Reds’ lineup. They have frightening guys like Joey Votto Jay Bruce and (sometimes) Ryan Ludwick. They have promising up-and-comers like Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier. They even have under-the-radar killers like Shin-Soo Choo.

Add to that lineup a pretty solid starting rotation and the possibility of Aroldis Chapman throwing 102-MPH hellfire out of the bullpen and the Reds are going to be tough to beat.

The biggest threat to Cincinnati is the weight of expectations. The good news is that they have a scary team in 2013. The bad news is that they’ve had a pretty intimidating squad for the last 3-4 seasons. Cincy has some great pieces, but those pieces don’t stay great forever. The window is still open for a great run, but the task only gets tougher when teams focus on their own ticking clock.

2^nd place – St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals aren’t always great, but they’re the best in the league at not being terrible. It’s been 23 years since a St. Louis team has finished in last place. Heck, the Cards have only done worse than third place once since the turn of the millennium.

The 2013 Cardinals might not be world beaters, but they aren’t an easy out either. Getting word that Chris Carpenter’s career is likely over was a huge blow to absorb in spring training, but is says a lot about this team that the postseason is still a viable goal.

With Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and a bunch of other hitters who just REEK of scrappiness and clutch, the offense should be just fine. But the Cardinals’ arms might be a season-long struggle. Adam Wainwright might be a Cy Young contender, but there is little other than some raw talent and potential filling out the rotation.

Jason Motte is also on the shelf with an ‘elbow strain’. Even if that is as benign as it sounds, it’s still something that you never want to hear mentioned in the same sentence as someone who throws 98-MPH gas.

3^rd place – Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s hard not to feel for the Pirates after the last two seasons. Already the owners of the longest stretch of consecutive losing seasons in professional sports, Pittsburgh flirted with above-averageness in each of the last two seasons, only to see their dreams come crashing down.

I’m not predicting that this will be the year that the 20-year streak of losing records ends, but I’m not sure that it will take more than an 80-82 record to notch third place in this division.

But enough with that pesky streak. Let’s look at all of Pittsburgh’s positives.

The Pirates have a breakout star in Andrew McCutchen and may have a future star on their hands if Starling Marte continues to progress in his first full year at the top level. The rest of the lineup has enough talent and experience to put up some runs throughout the season.

The biggest plus for the Pirates is the pitching. The Bucs finally have a rotation that should give them more quality starts than not and Jason Grilli could be the next big thing among the recent rash of young closers.

4^th place – Milwaukee Brewers

After committing to all of my standings predictions, the Brewers are my biggest surprise.

With former MVP Ryan Braun and household names like Aramis Ramirez, Rickie Weeks and Yovanni Gallardo on the roster, Milwaukee could very well have the talent to continue the upward climb that it was on from 2008-2011.

But something just doesn’t feel right. Even the addition of Kyle Lohse still doesn’t guarantee a good rotation and plenty of question marks like Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Gonzalez will be depended on in everyday roles.

Then there’s the elephant that refuses to leave the room. The suspension-turned-acquittal of Braun’s failed drug test before last season left plenty of people unsure of Braun’s honesty or true talent. A great 2012 season seamed to silence critics, but more links to PEDs have made Braun one of the most reviled players in baseball among his peers. He’ll probably still mash, but having that kind of stink follow you around can cause harm to the entire team.

5^th place – Chicago Cubs

Can we please do another comedy movie that features the Cubs? They really, really need it.

Think about it. The Indians got a new stadium and a pair of American League championships in the decade following the first Major League movie. We were entertained by Billy Heywood in Little Big League, which immediately preceded the Moneyball-esque success of the Twinkies that was covered in the A.L. preview. It took about a decade, but even L.A. got a World Series title after Angels in the Outfield.

In my opinion, Rookie of the Year is the second best of all those flicks, yet the Cubs never got their due. In the 20 years (God, I’m getting old) since that movie was released, the Cubbies have finished in fourth place or worse 12 times.

This season doesn’t appear to be a sign of better things to come as only three players on the roster are All-Star caliber. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are the only two that are really good at playing baseball, but I include Alfonso Soriano since he still collects huge checks at an All-Star level.

Personally, I think that the greatness of ‘Rookie of the Year’ earned the Cubs the 2003 world championship until Bartman messed with the order of the universe.

N.L. West

1^st place – Los Angeles Dodgers

Just as I was leery of picking the Red Sox to finish last, I have some reservations about picking the team that relieved Boston of its vital parts to finish in front of the defending world champions.

The Dodgers took a lot of flack for absorbing the massive contracts held by underperforming stars Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett. This could all turn out to be a huge train wreck, but I see a method in the madness.

Those guys were all stars in markets where baseball came second. Once they had to endure the Boston media, their entire approach to the game was hindered. Say what you will about their mental toughness, but the usual optimism of Dodger fans – along with the much more relaxed atmosphere – puts all of these guys right back in their wheelhouse.

Throw in Zack Greinke (if these spring elbow issues die down) and the return of Hanley Ramirez in May and the Dodgers could start looking like a franchise that is worth the $2 billion that  they sold for last year.

2^nd place – San Francisco Giants

When you play in a stadium where you might be murdered by seagulls (watch some of the WBC highlights) even a pair of World Series titles in three seasons can’t keep you from having some sideways glances thrown your way.

The Giants have an insane group of arms in their rotation and bullpen. Beyond insane, really. Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito both have Cy Young’s to their name, and they are, by far, the two guys in this year’s rotation with the least impressive stuff. Things only get worse for opposing hitters as Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo lie in wait in the bullpen to close games out.

San Francisco found a way to win it all in 2012 without a very explosive offense, but past success can’t be recalled to dictate future results. The Giants are still a team that rates as average – maybe – in most offensive categories.

Buster Posey is a stud in the middle of the order, but the modest power of Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval is mitigated by one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. After those three, it’s down to a bunch of punch hitters that will do well to get a few clutch hits all year.

The Giants might well win it all again this year, but if they do, it will be on the back of another dominant run of pitching and not because they’re more talented than some of the other teams in the league.

3^rd place – San Diego Padres

There isn’t much expected of the Padres this year, but I think that just creates a better environment for a lot of young talent to flourish.

Most baseball fans are well aware of 2012 N.L. RBI champ Chase Headley, but there hasn’t been much reason of late to get familiar with any other players in the organization. I’m not going to project greatness for this year’s Padres, but if any team come out of absolutely nowhere a la the 2012 Orioles, this could be the squad.

If that underdog story does play out, stadium renovations could prove to be one of the best organizational moves that the Padres have made in a long time. Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso both possess plenty of power, but it’s power that would have been negated while playing in cavernous Petco Park’s previous dimensions. This season, the fences have been moved in.

The Padres’ offense should get the obvious boost in production as former fly balls turn into doubles and home runs. This change is accentuated by the fact that a pitching staff featuring Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Luke Gregorson and Huston Street can keep opposing bats quiet no matter the field dimensions.

Of the 10 available playoffs spots, there are probably only 13-14 teams that most analysts would agree are in the race for October. The Padres are not one of those teams, but if everything plays out right, they could be this year’s Cinderella.

4^th place – Arizona Diamondbacks

While the Padres seem to be full of unrealized potential, the 2013 Diamondbacks look like they might be riding the coattails of the one-time greatness displayed by several of their players.

Right off the bat, the D’backs seem like they could be offensively challenged. Cody Ross, Aaron Hill and Martin Prado have doubles power that can include home runs, but there is no true cleanup hitter. Stout pitching rotations within the division, combined with plenty of pitcher’s parks (including their own) housing most of their games could make the Diamondbacks a low-scoring bunch.

If pitcher’s duels become the norm, Arizona probably isn’t in great shape. Ace starter Ian Kennedy is a solid pitcher, but his 21-win performance in 2010 is way more than anyone should expect from him for the rest of his career. Brandon McCarthy could turn out to be a great signing, but he only has one good year in the bigs and ended last season with a line drive off the head, followed by brain surgery.

If all of the pieces of this hodge-podge of a team work well together, they’ll be just fine. In the much more likely scenario that injuries occur or that a few guys don’t live up to their past numbers, the D’backs could be in for a long season.

5^th place – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are full of guys who have had some spectacular years in the big leagues. The problem is that – with the exception of that miracle run to the World Series six years ago – none of those players have had those big years at the some time.

Carlos Gonzalez can be a 30/30 guy, or he can sputter without protection. Troy Tulowitzki can be the best shortstop in the game, or he can get dinged up and never make it back to 100 percent health. The closest thing to consistency on this team is Todd Helton. He’s a Hall of Famer in my book, but his best years are far behind him and he can’t be counted on to make the Rockies’ offense imposing.

When it comes to the pitching, Colorado has apparently elected to punt. The Rockies suffered a lot of injuries to their top five starters – all of whom are healthy for this season – but those guys were pretty much awful even before they got hurt. Combined with the pitcher’s nightmare that is Coors Field, the all-alliteration quintet of Jorge (De La Rosa), Jhoulys (Chacin), Juan (Nicasio), Jeff (Francis) and John (Garland) might have their confidence shattered before May gets here.

POSTSEASON

Crap. I thought that I was in the home stretch. With 10 teams in the postseason, there’s still another few miles to go in this marathon. Give me a cup of Gatorade and I’ll try not to poop myself while running down how October is going to play out.

Wild Card Games

Toronto over Oakland

The Blue Jays aren’t the superpower that some people think, but lackluster years from the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox allow them to rack up wins and claim the top wild card spot. In a one-off game against the A’s, Toronto’s powerful lineup smacks a few home runs to stay alive.

Atlanta over St. Louis

In a revenge game from last season, the Braves once again host a one-game playoff against the Cardinals. This time around, Medlen pitches a little bit better, Atlanta’s defense plays a lot better, and Justin Upton seals the win with a 450-foot infield fly into the left field seats.

Division Series

L.A. Angels over Toronto (3-1)

All of those big bats in the Toronto lineup will be silenced by the Angels’ solid starting pitching and the cool October air. The Blue Jays have a few glorified slow pitch softball guys who can hit it 500 feet, but the Angels have athletes who can hit home runs AND leg out doubles and triples when their shots don’t clear the fence.

Detroit over Tampa Bay (3-2)

In the most entertaining division series, the home team wins all five games with late runs in pitcher’s duels. Detroit just barely gets through after being afforded the opportunity to rest regular starters and set up its rotation perfectly after clinching the Central in mid-September.

Atlanta over Washington (3-1)

The Braves hit a cold streak early in the year and fall a handful of games behind the Nationals. Atlanta will regain its form and catch fire, but won’t quite catch up in the regular season, leading to a playoff showdown. After hearing all season that the Nationals are just better, the Braves’ starting pitchers step it up a notch. Atlanta’s big bats connect for a few clutch hits off of Washington’s starters and Atlanta pulls the upset.

Cincinnati over L.A. Dodgers (3-0)

The Reds prove traditionalist wrong as their good hitting defeats the Dodgers’ good pitching. Los Angeles’ rotation can be overpowering, but the Reds’ best hitters have the ability to dial it down at the plate and just find a way to get on base and start a rally. In the other dugout, the middle of the Dodgers’ order is too hit-or-miss. Cincinnati’s starting pitching isn’t elite, but it will take care of a Dodgers team that is pressing too hard to live up to expectations.

League Championship Series

L.A. Angels over Detroit (4-2)

Justin Verlander shuts down the Angels in both of his starts, but the Tigers can’t find anyone else who can navigate the Angels’ deadly batting order. The Angels – having already outlasted their cross-town rivals – come into the series playing loose and silence all of the critics who blasted them for coming up short in 2012.

Cincinnati over Atlanta (4-2)

The Braves have the making of a team that can win a World Series or two, but they have one more year of growing pains ahead of them. After a decade and a half of riding strong starting pitching deep into October, that facet of the game turns on the Braves in the NLCS. Paul Maholm won’t pitch well enough to make the postseason rotation and the combination of Bruce and Votto feast on the right-handed Atlanta starters. The Braves’ offense will get its shots in, but Aroldis Chapman will blow away hitters in notching three saves in the series.

World Series

L.A. Angels over Cincinnati (4-1)

Remember how I talked about the National League exceeding expectations over the last few years? Yeah, well there’s a reason that everyone keeps saying that the American League is better. The Angels could have been a title contender last year, but took too long to heat up. Los Angeles got even stronger over the offseason and will certainly be more focused as the 2013 season begins. The Angels will win their division by a comfortable margin and outlast the other 2-3 possible title contenders in the league to make it to the Fall Classic. Once there, the Angels’ bats continue to mash and the Reds can’t keep up. Mark it down now – The Los Angeles Angels are your 2013 champs.

2013 MLB Preview

It’s finally here, everybody!!!

After a long winter spent crying over the downfall of my Phillies, then looking fondly upon my optimism during last year’s preview – only to cry even harder when I saw how horribly wrong I was about everything – I’m back and ready to do a lot better in 2013.

As usual, I’ll be covering all 29 Major League teams, plus the Astros. The praise, jeers and backhanded compliments are all meant in good fun, but I’ll do my level best to be as unbiased and informative as possible with my actual projections.

So without further ado – except for the N.L. teams; they’re up tomorrow – here is how I see things shaping up.

A.L. East

1^st place – Tampa Bay Rays

A little bit of a surprise right off the bat. Most people have already given the division title to the Toronto Blue Jays, but for all of the big splashes that they made in the offseason, I’m not totally sold on them outlasting the Rays. Tampa boasts two starters with ace stuff (David Price and Matt Moore) the 2011 ROY in Jeremy Hellickson, and a 2013 ROY candidate in Alex Cobb.

Many thought that the 2008 World Series season was a fluke, but the Rays have done a good job of remaining relevant and rebuilding. In addition to Evan Longoria, the Rays have a proven All-Star with Ben Zobrist. The trio of Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings and Will Myers will make Tampa lethal if all play to their potential.

2^nd place – Toronto Blue Jays

I will never cheer for the Blue Jays to win it all and will probably bust out a nice cigar and good bottle of scotch the day that Joe Carter dies. I’m sure he’s a great guy and all, but you will never be forgiven for crushing the hopes and dreams of an 8-year-old Mike Anthony.

All of that long-simmering hatred aside, I think that people who are calling for 90-plus wins out of the Blue Jays are getting a little bit ahead of themselves. Jose Reyes was the gem in that blockbuster trade with Miami, but he has only been an All-Star caliber player once in the last four seasons. Even more concerning – that one great year JUST SO HAPPENED to be a contract year. Reyes’ selfishness was evident when he pulled himself out of the last game of the 2011 season just to be sure that he would win the batting title. I don’t doubt his abilities, but I certainly call into question his willingness to play hard every day now that he’s got his fat contract.

There are other question marks amongst the Jays’ stars as it still remains to be seen if Jose Bautista can come back to 100 percent off of his wrist injury and Josh Johnson has never approached his viciousness pre-surgery. Toronto should be plenty good, but they might not be great.

3^rd place – Baltimore Orioles

I know that I disappointed a few friends and family members back up in York, PA (closer to Baltimore than it is to Philly or Pittsburgh) last season when I took more than a few cheap shots at the O’s. I’m also sure that any of those hurt feelings were easily mended as the Orioles shocked all of baseball in making a run to the playoffs.

Most of the faces are back from that rag-tag group of overachievers, but that might not be a great thing. There was a very good reason that no one saw the O’s coming last year. Of all of the scouts, front office guys and talking heads who are paid a lot of money to figure out who is good at baseball, none of them came up with an answer of ‘The Baltimore Orioles’.

Baltimore certainly has some good players in Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters. If guys like Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and just about every pitcher on the staff can prove that their career years last season weren’t a fluke, the O’s could be good again. But no matter how underrated any of these guys were last year, the law of averages seems like it’s ready to take revenge for crazy things like a 29-9 record in one-run games or 16 consecutive extra inning wins.

4^th place – New York Yankees

If I were to present to you a team whose optimal starting eight position players had a combined age of 236 years, what would you call them? If you called them the Yankees, you’d be wrong. You would still be one averaged-aged starter short of reaching the combined 269 years of creaky bones that New York plans on trotting out there.

The good news is that the Yankees’ opening day lineup will be significantly younger than that. The bad news is that this will be the case because some old fogeys like A-Rod and Mark Teixeira couldn’t even make it through the offseason in one piece.

When the Yankees are healthy and firing on all cylinders, even their advanced age won’t stop them from piling up runs. But most of their injuries are projected to drag on for a long time and it’s doubtful that the equally old and iffy pitching staff will be able to pick up much slack.

5^th place – Boston Red Sox

This was a tough call to make. In a Boston fanatic’s fever dream, the Sox will win the division this season. That’s not anything new or surprising, but what worries me is that the Red Sox have far too many All-Star level players for a last place team and I don’t want to suffer the shame of my preseason A.L. East cellar dweller making the playoffs for a second straight year.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks and Dustin Pedroia could create a very formidable top of the lineup and Jon Lester still has the stuff to win 20 games. But for every star or possible breakout star in the ranks, there are guys like perennial underachiever Stephen Drew or one-man infield pop-up machine Shane Victorino.

There is still some talent in Boston, but with legitimately good and legitimately OK teams dotting the division, the Sawx might not have what it takes to stave off 90 losses.

A.L. Central

1^st place – Detroit Tigers

Detroit showed its true championship pedigree last season. Not by that run to the World Series. Any good team can get hot and do that. I’m talking about the 80 percent of the regular season that the Tigers slept through before flipping the switch and lighting their division on fire. The Tigers weren’t great for much of the season, but in a less-than-stellar A.L. Central, they didn’t have to be. When the time came to start getting serious, no one else in the division had a chance.

The same scenario could very easily play out again this season. The Royals and Indians have both improved, but not enough to challenge for playoff spots. The Tigers were clearly the best of the bunch last season and should only get better with a healthy Victor Martinez still in the lineup. Triple Crowns are about the rarest thing to happen in baseball, but Miguel Cabrera is such a freak that he might make a run at another.

The bullpen will remain the Tigers’ biggest question mark, but with a potent lineup and a starting rotation full of guys who would be the No. 3 starter or better just about anywhere else, Detroit might lead most of its games by so much that a shaky last few innings won’t matter.

2^nd place – Kansas City Royals

I don’t know why I always think that the Royals are on the verge of breaking through. I have somehow found myself bearing the Sisyphean task of studying Kansas City, buying into all of its young talent, hyping them up, and then watching them lose 15 of their first 20 games and never get into the race.

Looking at hitting, power, defense, pitching, and all of that fun stuff, it’s clear that the Royals aren’t an A+ in anything. But then again, you’d have a hard time grading them much worse than at least average at any of those spots.

I like to think that my reckless days of calling for a Royals division title are behind me, but I still want to believe in the potential of this squad. I’m going to meet my hopes and cold reality somewhere in the middle. I think that the Royals get off to a much better start this year and are a feel-good story for most of the summer, but aren’t quite on the Tigers’ level.

3^rd place – Chicago White Sox

There are no shortage of people who would love to pick Chicago to with the A.L. Central. I can certainly understand their enthusiasm, but the problem is that all of that enthusiasm boils down to a handful of really good starters and a bullpen that should be great.

Don’t get me wrong. Both of those things are definitely great to have. In fact, I would guess that at least two or three teams do a lot right this season, only to miss out on the playoffs precisely because they don’t have dominant starters or relievers. But I just don’t see where the White Sox will score enough runs to do any real damage.

The offense is basically an aging Paul Konerko, a schizophrenic Adam Dunn, and a bunch of guys who only have decent career stats because they get hot for one month each season.

Chris Sale may very well win this year’s A.L. Cy Young and Addison Reed could become the new ‘it’ closer in MLB, but there just won’t be enough pop to make much magic in September.

4^th place – Cleveland Indians

The Indians made some solid moves late in the postseason (signing Michael Bourn and wrestling Nick Swisher away from the Yankees). The definitely improved themselves, but it won’t be enough to make much of a difference.

There are definitely other bright spots for Cleveland like up and coming Jason Kipnis and the majestic home runs that Mark Reynolds will hit when he isn’t busy striking out 200 times. But those can’t make up for the fact that the rest of the Indians’ roster is made up of average veterans and guys that even die-hard scouts don’t know about.

The ‘Major League’ franchise really ruined the Indians for anyone who wasn’t a fan before the movies came out. I feel like the Indians could become legitimately good, but nobody would give them credit until they see Bob Ueker cracking wise in the press box or someone sacrificing a live chicken in the dugout.

5^th place – Minnesota Twins

It was only a few years ago that the Twins topped even the Oakland A’s at being a successful team without the benefit of a big payroll. Minnesota tried to make the leap to full-fledged juggernaut by inking its two stars to huge deals and building a shiny new stadium, but everything has gone straight to hell.

Where the Twins could once do no wrong (finding some guy named Johan on the scrap heap, letting him walk just after he started to go downhill, getting top level production out of cheap guys like Jason Kubel and Nick Punto), there is no little that is going right. Mauer’s knees – and power – are starting to fade, Morneau has never come the whole way back from his concussion problems of four years ago, and that nice new ballpark has turned into a cavernous trap unbefitting of a team that doesn’t hit tons of home runs or defend well.

The Twins have overcome problems like this before, but they usually depended on a strong core of pitching to do so. That’s no longer the case, as Vance Worley – the No. 5 starter for Philadelphia – is slated to take the mound for the Twins on opening day. I’ll just let you use your imagination to fill out the rest of the rotation.

A.L. West

1^st place – Los Angeles Angels

The Angels surprised just about everyone in the baseball world last season as they never fully hit their stride. Despite offseason free agent addition Albert Pujols and midseason addition of Mike Trout – who hails from some planet where everyone is much, much better at baseball than us puny earthlings – the Angels couldn’t do better than third place.

Undeterred, Los Angeles went ahead and pulled off another free agent coup, signing Josh Hamilton away from the division rival Rangers. I suppose it’s possible that the Angels underperform again, but they have structured themselves in a way where underperforming could still lead to 90 or more wins.

The Angels are a juggernaut that seem preordained to win the division, if not much more. The real drama will come when L.A. plays new division rival Houston. A roster that is arguably the best in baseball gets 19 cracks at one that is inarguably the worst. Is a 19-0 mark possible?

2^nd place – Oakland A’s

There is little more debate about whether or not ‘moneyball’ works. Billy Beane is on his third or fourth fringe metric-generated roster of castoffs and nobodies that are continuing the proud Oakland tradition of surprising everyone, getting to the postseason, and then wilting in the playoffs.

I would say that there is no shame in that, but now that one-third of all teams make it to the postseason (which I support – additional TV ratings and tickets sales are doing great things for the fringe wild card teams), the A’s have to do better. Now that there are three full rounds, not to mention a possible play-in game, standing between the ‘we made the postseason dog-pile’ and a world championship, having a mostly anonymous roster is no longer such a strange thing to come across.

Ironically, the one thing that could get the A’s over the hump is the least ‘moneyball’-esque player on the roster. Oakland hit a home run by signing big money foreign free agent Yoenis Cespedes. A solid pitching staff and juuussst enough offense will again be the blueprint for this year’s squad. If the A’s have the balls to pick up a big piece through a trade, maybe they can finally break through.

3^rd place – Texas Rangers

If there has ever been a non-Phillies team that I’ve felt sorry for, it’s the Rangers. They went to back-to-back World Series and had the better overall team on at least one (probably both) of those teams.

The Rangers will still mash and have the perfect ballpark to do it in. The Rangers have added Lance Berkman’s sometimes-potent bat into the fray, but the acquisition that has slipped under the radar is that of A.J. Pierzynski. Texas is going to miss Josh Hamilton sorely, but will recoup some of the wins that left town with Hamilton in the new wins gained by opposing teams wanting to punch Pierzynski in the face so bad that they forget about trying to win the actual game.

Texas still has an above average pitching rotation and a decent bullpen, but they just don’t have the guns to go for their third division title in four years. A wild card berth is definitely an attainable goal for this team, but even that thought is just another reason to mourn a fading team that should have a World Series ring or two already.

4^th place – Seattle Mariners

This year’s edition of the Mariners tried to get a little better, but there is little hope of catching up to all of its old division rivals. The good news for Seattle is that it has a new division rival that – short of a plane crash – it can’t possibly finish behind. The M’s still don’t have a ton of star power, but at least they aren’t pathetic.

The one person on this team that any fan would know is Felix Hernandez. Seattle smartly locked him down to a long term extension. The problem, however, is that even die-hard baseball fans like myself have trouble recognizing another of the other four starters (or most of the bullpen) that Seattle is set to trot out this season.

Looking at the field, the Mariners aren’t great, but they also aren’t horrible. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley are still promising youngsters and the duo of Kandrys Morales and Michael Morse could make a better than average middle of the order if everything goes right.

The Mariners are doing a decent enough job of rebuilding their franchise, but the crappy part of that process is that you have to willingly go through a few bad years before any progress is shown. If Seattle can stay the course and stick to its convictions, there is definitely a light at the end of the tunnel.

5^th place – Houston Astros

Great news for Astros fans. You definitely aren’t headed towards another sixth place finish. Less great news – this is only the case because your new division only has five members.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this team found a way to finish sixth in a five-team race. I know that rebuilding can be rough and I realize that there are some baseball players who are grossly overpaid, but there’s really no excuse for the Astros paying their entire 25-man roster less than what Alex Rodriguez will make. That’s not a joke. Hand to God. That’s true.

For the second consecutive season, the Astros coast into the clubhouse with the title of team that is least likely to have any of its players taken in a fantasy draft. The only real possibilities that an Astro will go in your draft is if your league is deep enough that Jose Altuve becomes attractive or if you have a player in your league that has been in a coma since 2008 that jumps on Carlos Pena.

Houston has to face three good teams and one not-horrible team 19 times each. Now in the A.L. West, the Astros don’t even get the reprieve of playing the Cubs or a tail-spinning Pirates squad this year. It’s going to be a long death march through the blistering Texas summer. Godspeed, Astros.

Well, that’s it for today. Tune in again tomorrow as most of the league gets things underway. I’ll be unveiling my thoughts on the National League, as well as my playoff predictions, tomorrow afternoon.

Soccer - The final frontier

sis-ter kiss-er

noun

1.      One who kisses his own female kin

2.      One who is known to shy away from confrontation

3.      A tie in a sporting event, much like the 0-0 draw between Mexico and the U.S. Tuesday night

Soccer. Hey. What’s up, man? Why don’t you come and have a seat over here?

Listen, soccer. I get what you’re all about. I don’t understand you entirely and I’ve certainly said some less than complimentary things about you in the past, but I’ve been making an honest effort to get to know you better and to appreciate your finer points.

All of that said, I think that we might just have to agree that we aren’t meant to be together. I think that we make good friends. We can definitely get drunk and hook up once in a while. But I just don’t see this leading anywhere serious.

I’ll admit it. I used to take the easy way out with soccer. Back before the United States was given any sort of credit on the international stage, you could lump me in with most of the rest of the country in firing off a few condescending remarks about the sport during the 1 percent of my time that I wasn’t going out of my way to totally ignore it.

In the last decade or so, I like to think that I’ve done my part to work on the relationship. After making a few friends who have played soccer throughout their childhood, I made an honest attempt to understand the game. It took a little bit of effort, but I was able to begin to understand the ebbs and flows of a top-flight soccer match – not to mention the unbridled patriotism on display during the World Cup that was easy for me to get caught up in.

After years of following the United States men’s national team and investing in a country that is trying to become an international force in the world’s most popular sport, I feel like I have done my part.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that I can say the same for soccer.

And that’s not to disparage the sport. I don’t think that U.S. soccer has done anything wrong. This is just something that was beyond its control.

You see, I – like many American sport lovers – am ready to fully invest myself in whatever athletic team that I choose to root for. This isn’t an uncommon trait for a red-blooded American male. I am part of the reason that liquor is consumed at 9 a.m. on college football Saturdays, that death threats pour into hosts of sports radio programs, and that innocent trees can become the target of a heated rivalry.

And, in this respect, I – along with my insane brethren – am on the international level as far as the borderline sociopathic support for my country’s soccer team is concerned.

It’s just too bad that United States soccer (through no real fault of its own) is unable to get on this level.

It’s a shame, but no matter how good they get or haw many world powers they knock off, the USMNT is never going to be more than an emergency excuse to get riled up and drink/party/vandalize on a random weekday night (and at odd hours, depending on the location of the match). Soccer is America’s bowling night or softball league. It’s an excuse to hang out and drink that is thinly veiled as some sort of athletically-oriented social event.

Soccer’s problem in America isn’t with the people who watch it. It’s with the people who play it. Anyone can wear an American flag as a cape and turn on ESPN at kickoff. It takes a top-tier athlete to win soccer matches for his country, and all of America’s best athletes are busy playing just about anything that isn’t soccer.

Let’s face it. For all of the blood, sweat and tears that Americans put into achieving greatness in a sport, the endgame usually has something to do with a huge check or millions of fans knowing who you are. There is no shortage of great athletes in this country – just take a look at the medal count for any Olympic games if you disagree – but there is also a long line in front of soccer when it comes to sports that feature fame and fortune for those who seek it.

This is where the ol’ U S of A will always fall short as far as soccer is concerned. In just about every other country, the ultimate goal of the best athletes is to play for the national soccer team. In America, playing soccer professionally is basically the last option of ultra competitive cross-country runners who have good foot-eye coordination and who can’t get a college degree.

In America, there are just too many other options that will reward athletes with much more money. Football, baseball, basketball, and lucrative reality television contracts all offer much more than an average MLS player can ever hope to earn. Even if a teenager has a promising soccer career going, how is he supposed to pursue that if any of those other options seem viable?

Meanwhile, you’ve got kids in South America, Europe and Africa whose only other lucrative options if they find themselves as athletically talented youths include running drug cartels, being an awkward white big man in the NBA who flames out, or becoming a warlord in their ravaged nation. With so few options, just about every other country on the planet sends the best of the best to do battle against the fourth or fifth-string athletes that settle for playing soccer for the U.S.

Just think about it. The U.S. is taking a bunch of private school kids who weren’t big or fast enough to get football scholarships and pitting them against teams that are made up of guys who have dreamed of playing for their national team since they could kick a soccer ball.

It’s a losing battle and, quite frankly, the rest of the world should be in awe of the fact that we can routinely qualify for the World Cup with our also-ran athletes.

Just imagine if the U.S. was as soccer crazy as the rest of the world. Let me introduce you to the current starting lineup for the Stars and Stripes:

F – LeBron James

            Regarded by many as one of the best athletes in any sport, it stands to reason that LeBron would be a worldwide force if he ‘took his talents’ to the soccer pitch. James is taller and bigger than most elite soccer defenders and is rumored to have a 40 time somewhere in the 4.6 range. Good luck marking him when someone lofts a high pass downfield

F – Adrian Peterson

            This dude came within a few yards of the all-time NFL rushing record less than a year removed from shedding up his knee. Peterson is a freak of nature who can outmuscle anyone that he can’t outrun and vice-versa. “All Day” wouldn’t just be his nickname. It would be the amount of time that defenders spent fearing his next run down the field.

M – Mike Trout

            The reigning AL Rookie of the Year (and nearly the MVP) goes right alongside Peterson with being some sort of abnormal fluke of raw athletic talent. Not only does Trout possess world-class speed, but he wouldn’t need to have the ball to be dangerous. His ability to track fly balls would translate nicely into winning headers at midfield.       

M – Landon Donovan

            If we’re going to revamp the lineup, there needs to be at least a little bit of veteran leadership. Landon Donovan has been the face of U.S. soccer for over a decade. A few bad performances in big games gave him an awful reputation, but Donovan went from whipping boy to national hero in one-tenth of a second with his goal against Algeria in the last World Cup. He may be past his prime, but every good team needs a wily veteran.       

M – Cliint Dempsey

            While Donovan provides the veteran leadership, Clint Dempsey accounts for about 90 percent of the U.S.’s current soccer swagger. This addition has nothing to do with continuity. Dempsey is, quite simply, one of the best soccer players in the world. America is lucky to have him and he would likely headline the team, no matter how many of our citizens tried their hand at the game.

M – Kobe Bryant

            This guy might be a little bit over the hill as far as athletic abilities are concerned, but Kobe is the most cold-blooded killer that American sports has to offer. Bryant would make for a perfect defensive midfielder. He has the athleticism to shut down attacks and the vision and creativity to start his own offensive. Plus, you know that you could count on him to provide some late heroics if the situation dictated it. Shaq would probably stop trash-talking Kobe altogether if he amassed all of those NBA titles AND a World Cup.

D – Dustin Brown

            Playing defense in international soccer is like playing offensive line in the NFL. It’s a thankless job. Of all the times that you are singled out by commentators, 10 percent are for great plays, but the other 90 percent is for when you caused something awful to happen for your team. Hockey defensemen are a little more balanced as far as the hero/goat equation goes, but there are few people more intimidating or more committed to making sure that an opposing offense doesn’t finish the game with all of its bones or muscles in the same configuration that they started in. Go ahead and chalk up the NHL’s best American defenseman for this team.          

D – Darrelle Revis

            For all of the physicality that Dustin Brown brings to this dream team, there is an explosiveness that is lacking. With Revis on the squad, America would never have to worry about pesky wing players making deep runs down the sidelines to track down passes that are bombed downfield. Revis could beet opposing forwards to the point of attack and reverse field quick enough to start an American offensive.

D – Anderson Silva

            An MMA fighter is the most obvious choice of the entire lot to join the ‘All-Soccer’ team of American athletes. Silva has the unique blend of incredibly effective legs and general indifference to murdering anything that moves that makes him a perfect fit on this squad. Whether you need someone to mark a great forward on set pieces or a guy who will concede a yellow card to make a point early in the game, Silva would be your man. The unyielding fear of him kicking me in the head is enough for me to award him the captainship of this team and I’ve never even met the guy.

D – Kevin Durant

            The ultimate two-way threat. Durant is nearly seven feet tall, but he glides down the court and has no trouble slicing through smaller (and supposedly quicker) foes. Durant would be able to stay in front of the world’s most talented dribblers and would be a nightmare when he posts up in front of free kicks. Offensively, Durant would be lethal in the box as an extra attacker on corners. No dinky European would ever beat him to a header.

GK – Calvin Johnson

            This one was tough. I love Tim Howard. I love his borderline ridiculous goalkeeping abilities and I love his willingness to cram approximately 284 cuss words into the brief 3-second snippets of on-air close-ups that focus on him. But Howard wouldn’t hold a candle to a soccer-oriented Megatron. Calvin Johnson stands 6’5” and can cover more area than a standard infield tarp. In a penalty shootout situation, Johnson would be the equivalent of building a brick wall in front of the goal.

For all of you lifelong soccer fans out there, I hope that I didn’t offend you with this list. I respect your sport – even if I don’t always see the point of it.

My only goal was to show that, for all of the snide jokes that are made at our expense by the rest of the soccer-playing world, America probably could be a World Cup champion if it really wanted to.

Players from the other handful of sports that offer more money and fame aren’t going to switch to soccer anytime soon, but we should take solace in the fact that we already contend with – and sometimes pull upset wins off of – some of the best, most well-funded, and bat-shit craziest soccer playing nations on the globe.

It’s only a matter of time before our mid-level athletes conquer the field at the ‘world’s game’

“Hey, rest of the human population…. We don’t care that much about your stupid game, but we’re going to beat you at it out of pure spite.”

Soccer might not ever fully win the hearts of America, but rubbing a World Cup win into the face of the rest of the Earth would probably be the most American thing that I could imagine.

Everybody grab an American flag and memorize a nationalistic chant. I’ll meet you in Brazil next summer. I don’t know if soccer and I can last through a lifelong relationship, but it’s at least a fun fling to reminisce about.

March Madness, Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

11:54 – After a short 11 ½ hour break, we’re back in action here on the blog.

Not only am I pumped up for another full day of tournament action, but I got a bonus 15 minutes ago when I turned to CBS. Since I haven’t been home sick from school in over a decade, it’s been forever since I’ve watched more than a few seconds of The Price Is Right.

Hands down, the most entertaining show not named The Simpsons to ever go on the air. Even skinny Drew Carey hasn’t been able to ruin the show. It’s my lifelong dream to get on contestants row, then make one of the other players want to murder me as I bid one dollar more than him every single time.

Anyways, looking ahead to the action, I’m psyched that Duke has the first game. As the only team other than Georgia Southern that I root for in college basketball, I’m hoping that the Blue Devils can get past that little first round hiccup from last season that I’m probably never going to mention again. If they lose to another 15 seed, we might have to end this live blog early.

12:17 – Not having TruTV is finally starting to pay off. Ole Miss is playing on that channel, which means that I get to miss out on watching the insufferable Marshall Henderson. He has easily run away with the 2013 “most punchable person in the nation” award. I don’t even like half of the teams that Ole Miss beats, but I find myself siding with them when Henderson goes into his antics.

I think yesterday’s article on deadspin.com put it perfectly. There are a lot of star players who accept and embrace the bad guy persona as they take the heat from rival fans. Not Marshall Henderson. That guy was a total antagonistic asshole waaaaayy before anyone realized that he was good at basketball.

12:24 – Watching 16 tournament games play out in one day is a lot like watching a presidential election as the states are being called for one candidate or the other.

You’ve got buzzer-beaters that are too close to call. You’ve also got those states where there is a strong lean to one side throughout the day, but thanks to an athletic or sharp-shooting low seed (or one of those pesky third party candidates), we end up waiting a little longer before making the call.

Then, there are those states where one guy is named the winner with one percent of precincts reporting. That’s a game like Syracuse-Montana last night, and how the Duke-Albany game looks right now. When one team comes out and drills three contested jumpers, pulls down five of the first six rebounds, then gets its big man wide open in the lane for an uncontested dunk, you’re tempted to call the game before the first TV timeout.

12:35 – I really hate the one-and-done players that come through college. I know that you’ve heard it a million times already, but it cheapens the game so much. I think that there is more overall talent that has led to some of these upstart mid-major teams, but another big part of the trend is that these teams like Butler and VCU are featuring four or five upperclassmen who have played together for a couple of seasons.

Teams like Kentucky will still have better talent, but there is something to be said for being comfortable and familiar with the other four guys on the court with you.

My wacky solution to this is to create a sort of trial run for all of the guys who want to go straight from high school to the pros. They shouldn’t be eligible for the draft out of high school, but they should be allowed to play one year in the NBA D-League, with all of these first-year guys getting only their meals, hotels and travel paid for.

After one year of playing better competition than they would have faced in college – and thus, getting a better idea of how they’d stack up in the NBA – they should be able to make the choice to either enter the draft or go to college as a sophomore.

12:52 – Less than 14 minutes into the game and Plumlee already has three dunks for Duke.

Albany is playing the part of Rocky in the first movie of the franchise. The Great Danes are just standing there on defense and getting pummeled with haymakers. They’re just barely hanging in there with a floater every other trip down the floor, but I don’t know if they’re going to make it to the final bell.

12:58 – Florida Gulf Coast tips off in a little while. Yahoo! had a feature story the other day about how one of the dorms (or maybe a student housing complex? I just skimmed it) is sitting right on the beach in Fort Meyers. It’s no wonder that these guys are rising so quickly after making the leap to Division I.

It’s really unfair though. I work hard most days and can barely afford to take a three day vacation to the beach, but these guys are getting a free ride to college and LIVING on the beach.

The Eagles are stuck in 30-something degree Philadelphia for their first round game. I wouldn’t blame them one bit if they mailed it in and got back to their perpetual spring break party as soon as possible.

1:12 – Albany goes on an 8-0 run and pulls within 35-26 at halftime. It just doesn’t look like they have enough scoring options to keep it going, but it’s just close enough to make me a little nervous.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Wisconsin are tied up at 15-15. Marshall Henderson has just two points so far, but in all fairness, that’s mostly because he’s been walking through the crowd trying to hook up with the mothers and sisters of Badgers players.

1:29 – I wonder what the per diem is for players at the tournament. I know that the NCAA covers team travel and lodging for postseason games, but I would assume that teams are left to fend for themselves when dinner time rolls around.

That’s a double-whammy for some of these smaller schools like Albany. They’re probably going to lose a double-digit game to end the season, pack into their team vans, then stand in line at one of Philly’s cheesesteak joints while watching the Duke charter bus pull into an upscale steakhouse.

1:36 – Let me take a quick moment to thank everyone who is following this blog throughout the first two days. This is easily the most traffic my site has ever seen. Keep telling your friends and don’t forget to come back next week for my MLB previews.

1:45 – Jacob Iati is striping his 3’s for Albany. Unfortunately for Iati, he’s the only one on his team capable of doing so. Duke just drove that point home as the Devils watched him drain another long bomb, then trotted down the court and had Seth Curry – one of their MANY shooters – bank in a 3 to answer. It was almost as though they were trying to spite Albany for continuing to make shots.

FUN FACT: Jacob Iati is from my home town and played his high school ball at York Catholic, my dad’s alma mater

1:53 – The ACC has really taken a step back when it comes to overall talent. The conference is still good for producing one or two teams that can compete for the national title each year, but most of the depth is gone.

It used to be that the top 6 or 7 teams in the conference were a threat to win the ACC tournament and that most of them were locks for at-large bids to the NCAA tournament if they didn’t win the conference. This season, Miami and Duke are solid title contenders, but N.C. State was wildly underwhelming and North Carolina needed a strong last month of the regular season to get into the tournament.

Those are the only four ACC teams in the field and there really isn’t a good argument to be made that any of the other teams got snubbed. Maryland and Virginia had some high profile wins, but also some awful losses. The rest aren’t even worth discussing.

At least things should change when Syracuse, Louisville and Pittsburgh join the party.

2:01 – Mason Plumlee has spent approximately half of the Duke-Albany game hanging from the rim.

2:16 – This Duke game really is just like the first Rocky movie. Albany doesn’t have a knockout punch, but that isn’t stopping them from throwing all of the jabs and body blows that it can.

The Great Danes have certainly won over the crowd.

On a less positive note for Albany, Great Danes is a pretty crappy nickname. I mean, at least they don’t use ‘Mean Green’ or ‘Big Red’, but it’s still a poor effort. It’s certainly no ‘Italian Stallion’

I need to watch a Rocky marathon after the games wrap up tonight.

2:26 – Miami and Pacific are underway in what has to set a record for the biggest distance between schools competing against each other in the tournament. Has Hawaii ever been in the big dance? If so, I guess they would hold the title.

Anyways, this matchup has to have the lowest number of family/friends/fans from the schools in attendance. Miami is as southeast as it gets and Pacific is out by the San Francisco Bay. The location for this game, you ask? Austin, Texas. Because that’s the obvious choice.

2:43 – Marshall Henderson catches fire in the second half as Ole Miss gives the 12-seeds their third upset of the tournament. The most impressive part of this performance is that Henderson was able to drop 19 points on the Badgers whilst firing off profanity-laced tweets at Wisconsin fans.

You just know that he’s the guy that gets smashed at parties and talks to girls about naming his junk. 5-to-1 odds that he goes with “Colonel Reb”

2:52 – The hits keep coming for the ACC. N.C. State had a nice run in last year’s tournament, making them the trendy pick to win the conference this season. The Wolfpack came up well short and are getting throttled by Temple near the end of the first half.

This is why I don’t have Duke or Miami anywhere near the title game. Watching them play, I firmly believe that they’re both top-10 (top-5, maybe?) teams. But they’ve also both lost a handful of games to the crud that made up the majority of the ACC. I think that the Devils and ‘Canes are capable of beating anyone in the country. What concerns me is that they’ve proven that, on the wrong night, they can also lose to pretty much anyone.

2:58 – Did I just hear singing at the Temple-N.C. State game?

That was more that just a normal rhythmic chant coming from the crowd. It sounded more like the singing of an alma mater than a fight song, and there weren’t any instruments playing.

I could totally get down with singing – a la European soccer fans – at basketball games. Having a designated victory song would be a pretty cool way to wind down the last couple of minutes of easy victories. The only thing about these songs is that you can’t go for quality. There should be a three-drink minimum required to participate. The whole thing should sound like a melodic, rambling mess until you hit the chorus.

3:06 – Jeep is using Al Pacino’s speech from “Any Given Sunday” in a commercial. I don’t know how I feel about that. Listening to the entirety of the speech makes you want to run through a brick wall, punching puppies and kicking kittens as you go. But without all of the swearing, it’s really not getting its message across.

How am I supposed to drive my Jeep Liberty like a REAL MAN if you won’t at least drop a few F-bombs on me?

3:32 - Is there a greater tragedy in this tournament than the fact that Gus Johnson is no longer calling the games? The man’s play-by-play calls could make a high school chess match exciting.

If you’re ever having a bad day, wander over to YouTube and watch a Gus Johnson montage. There is no way that your day won’t be instantly better.

N.C. State is rallying hard, but even if they do come the whole way back, it just won’t sound the same without the cries of “DAGGER!!!” followed by the sound of Gus nearly falling out of his chair.

3:45 – I wonder what it would take to get tossed out of a tournament game? Obviously, taking a swing at someone will get you the door, but I’m thinking more along the lines of what coaches can get away with saying.

Officials won’t be shy to hand out a technical to a coach, but I bet it would take something pretty sensational to draw a second technical and an ejection. Coaches for those really low seeds should use this to their advantage if they’re in a close game. Yell whatever you want. As long as you aren’t storming onto the court or throwing things, it’s the ref who will look bad if he ejects you. If you can break down the ref, maybe you get that whistle when you really need it.

3:57 – Apparently, you shouldn’t mess with Philadelphia basketball. Temple was able to hold off N.C. State and now LaSalle – after taking down Boise State in the Frist Four (reprisal from yesterday: puke) – is all over No. 4 seed Kansas State.

With one upset in the bag and another one well underway, No. 9 seed Villanova could really make it a party with a win over North Carolina.

Just think of how good Philly hoops could be if a certain ‘Fresh Prince’ hadn’t been driven out of town all those years ago.

4:11 – I love my job as a sports writer, but I think that it would be awful to have to cover the NCAA tournament. Sure, you’d get to see some of the best teams in the country, but you’d also miss out on the vast majority of the action.

It would be incredible to get to interview players from a No. 15 seed after they shocked the world in an upset, but it’s much more likely that you’ll get the short end of the stick. Four games get played at each venue in the first round. You’re there from 11 in the morning until almost midnight and for every 1 vs. 16 snoozer that you have to sit through, the out of town scoreboard is flashing up buzzer-beaters and huge upsets that you aren’t able to watch.

I’d much rather be holed up in my living room with a two TVs, a case of beer, and plenty of free time.

4:21 – La Salle doing an absolute hospital job on Kansas State. The Explorers (come on, La Salle. You can do better than that) are up 44-26 at the break.

Have to credit fellow gsufans.com member (and hopefully, a devoted reader of this blog) ‘GSUfanforever’ for this gem:

La Salle – French for “Whipping your fanny”

4:31 – Are any of you readers in or around the Dayton area? If so, could you be on the lookout for the James Madison basketball team? This game is already four minutes in, but I haven’t seen them yet.

4:40 – Just now tuning in to the Creighton-Cincinnati game. What in the hell is going on with Cincy’s uniforms? It looks like they all got hit by the Harlem Globetrotters’ bucket of confetti.

Those things are beyond awful. At least the Blue Jays are doing their best to make sure that we won’t have to watch these sartorial nightmares run around the court much longer.

4:55 – Regretfully, I’m going to have to take a break for a few hours. I’ve got to go cover the Portal baseball team. Normally, that would mean that I’d be back in an hour after they lose by 20 and the game is called off after three innings, but they have managed to find an equally awful opponent today, so there’s no telling how long it could drag on.

You guys talk amongst yourselves. I’ll be back as soon as I can.

9:17 – Sorry about that. I severely underestimated how suspect the pitching in that game would be and it takes a while to recount all of the action in a 13-11 ballgame.

But now I’m back for the final bloc of games and we can ride this thing out together

9:29 – Man. I step away for a couple of hours and everything goes to hell.

Had anyone ever even heard of Florida Gulf Coast before today? At least No. 15 Cinderellas like Lehigh and Norfolk State from last year had been to their share of tournaments before.

The Eagles have literally no basketball history. Seriously. Half of the entire Wikipedia entry on the team is the sentence describing FGCU’s win over Georgetown. The Hoyas have disappointed in the tournament plenty of times before, but this year’s group has set the bar at a new low for future teams to trip over.

9:37 – La Salle blew its 17 point lead, but managed to upset K-State at the wire. Unfortunately, Villanova couldn’t complete the aforementioned Philadelphia sweep as the Wildcats bowed out to North Carolina.

Normally, I’d be all for the Tar Heels getting bounced early, but now a showdown is set with Kansas. Aside from the fact that two of the three most historically successful basketball schools in the country are meeting in the tournament, this is big because Roy Williams now has to coach against his former Jayhawk team.

The awkwardness of the interview where reporters asked Williams if he was leaving for Carolina mere minutes after his Kansas team lost in the 2003 title game is still lingering over Lawrence.

9:57 – The President’s bracket took a pretty big hit with Wisconsin (had them in the Elite Eight) bowing out in the first round. But considering shockers like Harvard, La Salle and FGCU, his picks still are looking as bad as most peoples.

I wonder what would happen if Obama picked a perfect bracket. Would conspiracy theories arise about the highest office in the land fixing games? Would he automatically qualify for a third term? Would Fox News use it as proof that he is the Antichrist?

These are important questions that need to be answered, people!!!

10:04 – No. 10 seed Oklahoma is looking sharp early on. I’m surprised that the Sooners don’t make deep runs in the tournament more often.

The state has all of the early 19^th century Dust Bowl traits as Kansas, yet basketball fever didn’t quite catch on to the same effect. I’m sure that the Sooners are quite content with their decision to save all of their bat-shit insanity for football, but how awesome would it be to watch the Sooner Schooner stampede across a crowded basketball court?

10:22 – Kansas goes off in the last bloc of games as the final No. 1 seed to see action.

The Jayhawks are going up against Western Kentucky, which is a complete mess, no matter how you look at them. As the number 6 seed in their own conference (the not-so almighty Sun Belt), you know that their credentials are suspect.

Then, there is the name. Western Kentucky is the Hilltoppers. What is that supposed to be? I was bagging on La Salle for being the Explorers, but at least those guys have a sense of adventure. WKU seems content to mount the biggest hill in town, see what there is to see, then call it a day.

And don’t even get me started on their amorphous blob of a mascot. He’s supposed to be a red towel, which is another weird and baffling story about WKU history that I won’t bore you with. Maybe the announcers will get around to that factoid when Kansas is up by 40 in the second half.

10:37 – Did you know that there are now 160 Division I teams that make the postseason? The NIT was always a nice consolation for some of the major conference teams that didn’t quite have a good enough year or for mid-major teams that can play with the best, but who screwed up in their conference tournament.

A few years ago, the CBI began play. This was nothing but a shameless money grab for schools who had no pride, but plenty of fans that would buy tickets if they were given a few more games to host.

Now, there’s something called the CIT. I haven’t looked, but I’m sure that whatever teams are making up this fourth-tier tournament are an affront to the good name of mediocrity. Any guesses on who won last year’s CIT? It was Mercer, who I wouldn’t have even been sure had a basketball team if I hadn’t been to one of their games before.

I can only assume that the championship venue for this clash of titans is a random YMCA gym, provided they can get a good time slot to rent out.

10:47 – Those Hilltoppers came to play! A 24-21 lead for WKU late in the first half has our second No. 1 seed of the tournament sweating out its first game.

If Western wants to pull the upset it’s going to half to go on a big run. Not that Kansas is bound to go on a run of its own (although it probably will), but No. 16 seeds that stay close until the end always seem to have all of the cards fall against them in the waning minutes.

Not only do they have to beat one of the best teams in the nation, but all of the whistles tend to favor the top seed. I don’t think that refs are trying to dictate the outcome of the game, but they probably subconsciously defer to the No. 1 since no top seed has ever lost its first game. When the fateful day comes that a No. 16 seed wins, I imagine it will be a game like the Florida Gulf Coast upset where the underdog comes out firing, gets a comfy lead, and never slows up.

11:04 – The United States leads Costa Rica 1-0 at halftime in their World Cup qualifier. This concludes my blog’s entire 2013 soccer coverage. We’ll see you at next year’s World Cup preview!

11:09 – Iowa State and Notre Dame were close early on, but the Cyclones have now run out to a 15 point lead early in the second half.

The Fighting Irish are becoming notorious for this sort of behavior. They always play well enough to pop into the top-25 once or twice during the season and the name/conference recognition is usually enough to give them a respectable seed. They’re never seeded – or thought of – so highly that an upset makes for a huge story, but you can almost always count on them to fall to a lower seed.

Other offenders of this nature: Vanderbilt, USC, Maryland, Michigan, Iowa

11:28 - San Diego State is trying to pull away from Oklahoma. The Aztecs are another one of those mid-majors that is sticking around as a force instead of fading away once one core group of seniors departs.

All of these teams seem to follow the same rise to prominence before becoming a mainstay on the national radar. They usually make one or two uneventful tournament appearances and gain a reputation in their own conference, then have that one HUGE win in the tournament that captures everyone’s attention. A few of these teams – like San Diego State – have even taken the next step, bringing back a handful of players from the team that pulled the big upset, posting an incredible regular season mark the next year, then challenging for a high seed and winning a few more tournament games.

The blueprint has been set, and I think that teams like Butler and VCU making annual deep runs is going to become the rule instead of the exception.

11:36 – Western Kentucky has only scored two points in the first six minutes of the second half. Luckily for the Hilltoppers, Kansas isn’t faring much better. But I’m sticking to my prediction. WKU is now down by two and it’s running out of time to build the 10 point cushion that it would need to hold off a top seed through the last few minutes.

11:46 – I think that I’ve found a practical use for that CIT tournament. We should take the winner – which I am dubbing “The Undisputed 129^th Best Team In America” – and put them up against whoever wins the women’s NCAA tournament. Not to sound chauvinistic, but I bet the dudes win by 60.

11:54 – San Diego State rolls into the round of 32.

Is anyone still keeping tabs on schools that are deemed to have offensive nicknames? What have the Aztecs never made that list?

I don’t consider simply naming yourself after a former Indian tribe to be offensive, but that never stopped a bunch of other people from getting their panties bunched up about it. The Washington Redskins are constantly under fire. The Florida State Seminoles have been picketed and boycotted despite working with – and having the approval of – the still-existing Seminole nation. The North Dakota Fighting Sioux face legal action from the NCAA despite the fact that nobody actually lives in North Dakota.

I just don’t get it. I’ll admit that some of the cartoonish logos and overly flamboyant mascots previously used by some teams could easily upset people who take their heritage seriously. But I don’t think that anyone could sit there with a straight face and say that any team with an Indian-related name is abusing or sullying the namesake in any way nowadays.

12:05 – How fitting that midnight marks the end of Western Kentucky’s Cinderella bid. Give them credit though. They gave it one hell of a run.

P.S. – Hilltoppers is still a ridiculous nickname.

12:23 – After that sort-of close call with Kansas, it seems anticlimactic that there is still one more game going on. The Minnesota-UCLA game isn’t necessarily a bad one (plenty of drama since the losing coach might be fired despite multiple career trips to the Final Four), but I would have thought that the NCAA would end the night with something stronger than a 6-11 matchup where neither team is a big name or even a potential sleeper.

While they slug it out for a few more minutes, I’m going to reflect on what I’ve learned during this whole live-blogging fiasco.

-         I’m not filling out a bracket the next time I do this. If I do, the bracket won’t be in a money pool. So many times, I wanted to hijack 30 minutes of this thing to vent on one of my top seeds that was playing like crap (I’m still not talking to you, New Mexico), but I’m sure that all of you have your own bracket problems to worry about.

-         I’ve got to hydrate better. With relatively little work to do during this grand experiment, it was inevitable that a non-small number of cocktails were going to work their way into this thing. I don’t think that they made my observations worse – although the swearing did increase – but it made my workout and 10 miles on the stationary bike this morning really, REALLY suck.

-         I need to get a new laptop. Mine has a battery that is shot, giving me all of about five minutes away from a power source before everything shuts down. Laundry went unfolded, dishes went unwashed and pets went unfed because I have been tethered to this couch for 80 percent of my waking hours for two days. Based on the looks I’m getting from the girlfriend – who I have also had to neglect – I might be spending some of my sleeping hours here as well.

-         Eat less food. Fair warning – I’m about to talk about pooping… OK. I’m not going to lie. I got VERY invested in this thing. I’m keeping tabs on my time tags for each post and I’ve been getting anxious every time I thought that you guys had been waiting too long for an update. That said, eating the ‘inferno’ hot wings for lunch today was a bad idea. I don’t want to be stuck in the bathroom while you guys are clicking refresh and getting nothing new.

12:30 – Wow. While I was getting all of that out of my system, Minnesota went ahead and took UCLA behind the woodshed. I know that the Bruins were a little banged up, but I would have thought that they would have given the Big Ten version of N.C. State (read: vastly overrated at beginning of season and doing nothing to convince detractors otherwise) a little bit more of a fight.

I wonder what would happen if UCLA put John Wooden’s coffin at the end of the bench? I bet they’d win at least 20 games.

12:38 – Even if some of these upsets hadn’t developed, you’d have to admit that the lower seeds fared very well in the first round and that it’s obvious that parity is steadily marching onward in college basketball.

Those 1-16 matchups used to have scores like 103-52, but no top seed scored more than 83 points and two failed to make it past 70. Even more telling – the average margin of victory was just 16.25 points. Not bad for a bunch of 16-seeds that used to lose by several touchdowns each year.

12:46 – Aaaannnnnd, that’ll do it. Minnesota wraps up a win to finish off the first round of the tournament, and with it, my 36 ½ hour long running account of the action.

Let me take another moment to thank everyone who has been checking in over the last couple of days. As I said before, this has been my blog’s most successful post BY FAR and that’s all because of you guys constantly checking in every hour to see if I had gone completely insane yet.

It’s been 10,302 words of scoreboard watching, vile insults, and hopefully not-totally-awful jokes. I’ve enjoyed bringing you every one of those words, but if you don’t mind, I’m going to watch the second round in peace and without a laptop surgically attached to my hands.

Thanks again for tagging along for the ride. Don’t forget to come back next week for my preview of the MLB season.